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Comment by jasonbarone | Hacker News Reader

When I moved to New York a few years ago all it took was a handful of taxi rides to figure out that Uber will eventually put them out of the business. I've had drivers lie about not knowing where to go, intentionally take longer routes, and lie about credit card machines while trying to get rides from New York to Brooklyn, or Brooklyn to Brooklyn. To add insult to injury nearly every single cab is filthy and smells horrible, while costing the same if not more than an Uber ride.

There's just no comparison here.

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Important point: while costing to the customer the same, if not more. The result? Uber operating at huge losses. The result of that? Well, austerity measures. You can already see the signs of Uber starting to clamp down and make their service worse and worse.

Recommended pickup locations -> No longer door to door?

Assigning next rides before the previous one has completed -> No longer "feeling like a baller" while your driver is fielding calls from other customers with you still in the car

Wait times have been getting demonstrably worse all over Manhattan, probably elsewhere too

General quality of car/driver has been in decline since Uber started, in part precisely because of their putting cabs out of business. What's your cab driver going to do when he decides it's not worth driving a cab anymore because of Uber? Duh, work for Uber.

There's no comparison right now, but there will be soon.

I'm never going to use Uber again except for business travel due to their nice tie-in with business accounts. Personal travel? Nope. In NYC I use Juno and elsewhere I'll use Lyft, Hailo, or any number of local alternatives.

I agree, Uber drivers seem to be getting progressively more clueless and inexperienced. Last night I had one that would just stare at the moving map on the GPS, without any situational awareness at all, up to the point where we were down to about 15mph on an interstate highway while he tried to figure out which of the tangle of exit ramps it wanted him to take, which was wildly unsafe. It did occur to me that for all the frustration cab drivers engendered, they did actually like know how to get from the major airport to the major train station without getting confused and stopping in the middle of the highway.

That is what it is, but the larger point I think it inspires, as does your post, is that I can't see how Uber can possibly claim that it's going to be able to generate some kind of monopoly profits from the whole endeavor.

Theoretically the whole point of all this insane fundraising and spending is that Uber will, one day, be in some dominant and unassailable position, and can raise prices. But that doesn't make any sense, they're increasingly making it clear that they have a commodity product at best. How they plan to defend that as a monopoly is a mystery.

And let's talk about self driving cars when there's at least one single car somewhere in the world that actually can drive itself somewhere without a driver present. Until that day, which is likely in the semi-distant future, we're talking about the economics and practical effects of an app based car and driver hailing service.

And lastly, it's probably worth noting the parent commenter posting multiple times in this thread defending the company actually works for Uber, and has a HN posting history almost entirely composed of defending the companies who pay him: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonbarone

I've been noticing that too. When I was trying to go to Github Universe the cab driver ended up taking a call from his kid's daycare, meanwhile driving me to the wrong pier, stopping at a power station and asking if this was the right place.

Also, every uber driver I had when visiting virginia would ask me how to get where I wanted to go. I would have to tell them that I have no idea, and then we'd get lost.

I guess I assume that these drivers would eventually get weeded out thanks to the rating system, but since the system isn't anonymous, I think most people rate 5 stars no matter what.

> isn't anonymous

They don't know who rated them what. All they know is their average over the last 500 riders.

Counter-anecdote: I've had an NYC cab driver stop in the middle of the interstate trying to figure out which way to go next to JFK. It was pretty scary. The driver quality in both services seems very low to me.

Agree. The UberX experience is just getting worse and worse over time in NYC - won't be long before it gets to yellow cab levels, if not worse.

UberBlack is fine as always, you get what you pay for.

Drivers are getting consistently worse - both in knowledge of streets and in general behavior. I'm a bit sympathetic - they're getting squeezed hard by Uber and the system can be draconian - but the reality is that I get more asshole behavior from UberX drivers nowadays than I do from yellow cabs, which are at least consistent in their mediocrity.

I feel like UberX is going to go down as a brief, glimmering moment when ridehailing was cheap and good, before economic reality picked one of the above, not both.

UberX is becoming UberLateModelPrius here in SF

I'm less concerned about it being UberLateModelPrius (a not-fancy car was always part of the deal with X), but I've noticed last time in SF it was becoming UberFilthyLateModelPriusWithRudeDriver. That I do mind.

They're becoming just like the cabs they replaced, just without the brightly colored paint jobs.

And insurance policies + regulations (even if said regulations go unenforced more than they should).

AFAIK many states require (and Uber provides) commercial insurance while a rider is in the car.

What happened to the legendary driver ratings system enforcing politeness?

High turnover would be my guess. The rude driver you see is on his way out, only to be quickly replaced by another one.

I wonder if it would be possible (and legal) to use machine learning algorithms to determine which driver applicants are likely to have low ratings.

You probably just discover that the key factor was how much they get paid.

Fair points but let me add a few things to consider as well:

"Uber operating at huge losses... service worse and worse." I don't agree here, the service is much better than before. Even with the introduction of uberpool, the service has stayed nearly the same for me in NY, and especially here in SF, while the cost has cut over 50% or more. If you follow Uber closely you can see they're investing into the company to continue to grow. You can see them experimenting with new products and services. UberEATS [1] (leveraging the same tech and driver network), San Francisco flat rate subscriptions [2], and self-driving cars [3]. Lyft and other competitors are followers at this point and are trying to compete by burning capital on huge ad-buys. Uber is significantly ahead.

"No longer door to door." This is to better connect both parties in the pickup and drop off. I've been using this non-stop in SF, it's more efficient and safe for the rider. It's also safer for the driver and helps them avoid getting tickets that ruin a driver's week.

"Feeling like a baller." There are still other products for these if you want privacy and better service. If your driver isn't giving you the expected service you can rate them accordingly.

"General quality has been declining." This shouldn't be the case. Uber has strict vehicle requirements in all cities that drivers must follow. Uber also connect drivers to fleet partners, rental partners and new and pre-owned vehicles during the signup process. If anything, the cars will get even better as they deprecate older models.

"What's your cab driver going to do...?" He will work for Uber, but again he will follow Uber's vehicle requirements.

1. http://eats.uber.com

2. https://www.uber.com/info/plus/sanfrancisco

3. https://newsroom.uber.com/pittsburgh-self-driving-uber

Uber is only ahead if those side bets, like Eats, actually pay off.

Also worth asking: Are the price reductions you've seen real, or the result of burning dumpsters of cash in the price war with Lyft?

Uber just have to survive until self-driving cars are a reality.

So maybe another decade or two? I'm not sure a 'just' is fair when aiming for something never done before.

I don't believe it will take that long.

Solving the self-driving car problem in busy urban centers is vastly more difficult then solving it for freeway driving. (Where this technology still manages to fail in a very spectacular way.)

You mean like here:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BK0z7oZgOia7zfdlJ4ygJqEDBW8e17lq...

What is that supposed to prove? It's a test vehicle. It's being driven by a human. There's no roadmap, there's nothing that's passed certification, there's no roadmap for when there will be something that passes certification.

Its proving that we arent necessarily two decades off.

Never mind solving the self-driving car problem in the thousands of legislatures throughout the US alone.

I think if it can be solved in California, Texas, and at the federal level, the rest will follow suit.

Self-driving taxi legislature, on the other hand, will be a different can of worms.

In our current economic system, no city in its right mind will be interested in seeing robots funnel money directly from its residents to a VC fund.

Just noticed my uber in Chicago this weekend was roughly $2.50 more than normal. (I take the same uber ride every weekend) I'm not sure if prices have gone up but it is frustrating.

Not parent commenter but I'll still take that over filthy cabs and sketchy-as-hell drivers.

You must've missed my point. I would too. However,

> There's no comparison right now, but there will be soon.

The things that I just listed are the things that are already happening, and their VCs haven't even started demanding their money back. And this is all if everything goes swimmingly for them. No massive regulatory hits, no demands for insurance, no declaration that drivers are employees, etc.

I'll hold the criticism until Uber drivers start using short wheelbase Camrys with vinyl seats and dividers (resulting in no legroom at all).

For some reason I feel safer and more comfortable with Taxi drivers than with Uber drivers. I understand the whole background check thing, and that helps. But a taxi driver, whether you like it or not, is a full-time professional. Whereas an Uber driver is just somebody with a gig on the side (usually).

Taxi drivers less frequently ask me overly personal questions. Taxi drivers in general don't seem to give a fuck about their customers, and I've come to appreciate that. When I'm hailing a ride, chances are I'm not interested in exchanging life stories, or being impressed by how cool my driver is.

In a crowded city, the distance is welcome.

edit: one more thing -- Taxi drivers invariably know the roads better. Sometimes that doesn't matter. But in the event of traffic problems, or if you're really in a rush, it helps tremendously.

Uber is profitable in New York.

Oh good. They oughta be handling those billion dollar 6 month losses just fine then.

Reinvesting in owning a market that is literally an app install away from someone else stealing your lunch is not reinvesting. That's just burning cash.

Its not about the app. Its about the Uber lawyers gaining entrance into local markets across the world. That's where the money is going.

It's about Uber's very expensive lawyers clearing the regulatory path for competitors (who are only app installs away) to then utilize for free from here until the heat death of the universe?

Clever strategy.

You seem to think it's easy for customers to switch. I think there's enough barrier that they can keep the network intact.

What are you talking about? I have like 4 ridesharing apps on my phone concurrently and switch between them based on whoever has the lowest time-until-pickup.

What barrier do you think is there?

I'm too lazy to do that. I used to have 3, then uninstalled Fasten. Now I have both Lyft and Uber and am considering uninstalling Lyft because I never use it.

Why should I waste time tapping on a different app, waiting for it to load, tapping through the destination, etc.? The estimated wait times aren't accurate to the minute, so +/- the error they are almost always equivalent. Enough so that checking the other app feels like a waste of time. In the time it took to load the other app, I could have been waiting for the car to arrive. It's not worth the mental energy to choose.

Further, Uber has a prepay promotion. I pay an amount at the beginning of the month to avoid surge charges and get a discount through the rest of the month. I'm basically locked-in for any month that I prepay.

Here's an anecdote to explain how awful of a position Uber is in.

As mentioned elsewhere, I use Juno almost exclusively in NYC when traveling for personal reasons. How did I end up using Juno?

First, I was offered a steep discount via beta invite. By whom? My Uber driver. Problem 1. I sat on the invite for a few weeks through which I had numerous bad experiences with Uber (long wait times, bad drivers, second riders calling while I was in the car, etc.) Problem 2.

I called an Uber and it gave a 15 minute pickup time. Problem 3. I cancelled, found the Juno invite, downloaded the app, made an account, and was in a car within 10 minutes. Problem 4. The Juno driver and car was better than most recent Uber rides, the app was just as good as Uber's, and it cost me about 70% of the money. Problem 5.

So what exactly is Uber buying with these promotions? Another week of sub-15 minute pickup times by overworking their drivers? They're certainly not buying loyalty, nor any meaningful market share. No matter what they do, I'm <10 minutes from a competitor's car.

As the service degrades in order to meet profitability demands (you do believe in basic finance: money in minus money out, right?), the calculus turns ever towards the competitor's favors. These young competitors are simply doing what young Uber did to the cabs: attract higher quality drivers in higher quality cars and higher quality riders, subsidize the hell out of it, and then figure out what to do.

They probably won't last either, but then none of them have to justify a $50bn valuation with a moonshot bet on technology that's not even close to being able to support the core of their business.

> promotions don't buy their way out

I'm not talking about a give-away. A prepay program is similar to an airline loyalty program. Delta can charge me higher ticket fares than a competing airline on the same route, because it's good for me to consolidate my "miles" with one airline. Now that I'm "elite" they can manipulate my ego and get me to pay more so I have a chance at a "free" upgrade to a fancy seat.

If Uber can convince me to prepay, they don't need to compete on price or wait time for the rest of the month. It only needs to be a good enough value to convince me to prepay again the next month.

Going back to the airlines, that industry is quite similar to Uber's. Sure, there's the capital investment in airplanes, but that can be financed with debt or equity. There's negotiating terminal space, but again, that's just money. No barrier to entry there either. Now, the airline industry is a good example of a place it's tough to make money. "How do you make a million bucks? Start with a billion and start an airline." But the airlines are still around. Not sure why Uber is different from Delta.

You really think starting an airline is as easy as starting an Uber competitor? Yeah I guess besides the gargantuan barrier to entry.

I've got a bridge to sell you.

No point in discussing this further, really.

You think running an Uber competitor is easier than running an airline? I've got a great investment for you...

If a barrier to entry is just financial, it's no barrier at all.

Let's think through the dynamics of the situation you describe. You say Uber is doomed because competition is too fierce. Yet you say the competitors are also doomed. Somebody will go bankrupt first. That will reduce competition and profits will go up. Maybe another competitor shows up and it's back to doomed. But then they go out of business, too. Eventually, people will stop entering this doomed industry and if Uber is still around, it'll start turning a profit. Every industry goes through times of competition and times of consolidation.

>You cannot give away money and expect to have more money than before you gave it away.

In the valley this is the most effective way to raise money.

>>> Recommended pickup locations -> No longer door to door? Assigning next rides before the previous one has completed -> No longer "feeling like a baller" while your driver is fielding calls from other customers with you still in the car

Above is applicable only if you use UberPool. It's a great way to save money.

Nope. I've had one of the above (or both) happen for all 5 of my most recent Manhattan UberX rides.

To be clear, I'm not talking about someone joining your UberPool ride. I'm cool with that, I chose Pool after all. I'm talking about how now, Uber will assign your current driver to his next rider before your ride has ended. As in, he will drop you off and he will already have been assigned the next rider to pick up.

I like the optimization, I don't like the fact that then the next rider will start calling the driver asking where he is/why he's going this direction/why he's taking so long etc.

I had something similar happen with my last UberX ride. The app said the driver was a couple of hundred meters away on the map, so I rushed outside. Then, I watched him drive circles on the map around my location for 10 minutes. I thought he couldn't find the entrance. When I'd see him on the map going around the block to the opposite side of my building, I'd walk to the other entrance hoping to meet him. Then, he'd drive past on the map, and I'd return to the other entrance. When he finally arrived, I asked if he had trouble finding the location, but he said the last person he dropped off was lost, that's why it took so long. So, it's clear he had another passenger when Uber matched us up, and Uber showed his location on the map when he was still driving the other passenger. That caused a 10 minute delay on my end.

Then, when I was approaching my destination, some other people on the sidewalk were looking at their phone, and signaled to the driver. The driver pulled over next to them, I got out, the other people looked slightly confused someone was getting out of their Uber, and they got in.

I live in Manhattan and use uber ~10 times weekly. I've never observed the behavior you describe with uberX, only uberPOOL.

The UI does show you if the driver is finishing a ride near you, but it doesn't tell you to meet him at their dropoff point. It also tries to recommend known "visible" pickup locations along the street where you're calling from, but you can always specify your own location.

Do either of these things sound like what you're thinking of...?

> The UI does show you if the driver is finishing a ride near you

Ever consider what that means on the opposite end? Let's say you're an inpatient person (not a rarity in Manhattan). What happens when you call your Uber driver? Shockingly, he must now answer a call with another rider in the car. Effectively: making the ride less safe, making the ride less personal, cutting off any conversation, cutting off last minute "drop off" instructions like "under this red sign on the left" and generally degrading the entire experience.

And yes it is currently a recommended pickup spot for UberX. Thus why I said "Recommended pickup locations." Do you think it will stay that way? Given all the aforementioned stressors on Uber's monetization strategy, I highly, highly doubt it.

All fair. Just pointing out that this:

> Recommended pickup locations -> No longer door to door?

is not currently true for uberX. If you're inferring that uber is headed that way, well, maybe. But it's not so presently.

No, UberX does give recommended pickup locations. It just did it to me two days ago in London and has done it several times in Manhattan. It doesn't force you to use them, but that's why I said it's a recommended location.

I like the optimization, I don't like the fact that then the next rider will start calling the driver asking where he is/why he's going this direction/why he's taking so long etc.

That's barely different from the usual experience where the driver is jabbering away in Kreyol or Punjabi on his headset while the customer is in the back seat trying to tune it out.

I can tell you that among Black people in Brooklyn, Uber was a god-send. Cabs would outright lie as mentioned above, refuse to take you to certain boroughs, refuse to pick you up from Manhattan, etc.

Agreed that the cab experience is about half as good, but for about the same price.

Really a no-brainer. Everyone here uses AND loves Uber. I and a lot of my friends spend at least $100/mo outside of work commute costs.

source: I'm a black person in Brooklyn.

I remember reading this blog piece regarding Ubering while black, and it improved my opinion of the company/"taxi startup" industry: https://medium.com/matter/ubering-while-black-146db581b9db#....

I take cabs all the time (in Manhattan). I can't remember the last time I've been in one that's "filthy" or where the driver didn't take cards. All are pretty recent model cars with those screens in the back.

Maybe its different in the boroughs?

Yea odd, I blame it on my inexperience with the city. I lived in East Village and Lower East Side and had all of the scenarios I mention. In fact, on a rainy night once I had the "I don't know how to get there" happen twice in a row. On the first vehicle I got out of the car and hailed another, then I responded to the next driver that I would tell him where to go with my GPS.

I got the broken credit card at least twice, both in a yellow cab and green cab coming into Manhattan. I had cash on me and didn't complain until I later found out they're not supposed to do that.

I'm surprised you haven't gotten dirty cabs. I'm certainly not the type that has to be in some spotless car, but I honestly can't remember seeing a clean cab back in NY. The days following a rain storm are the absolute worse too as the floors and seat backs often covered in mud. I think the worst are broken A/C or window-down cabs in 90 degree summer. Those things smell horrible.

Again, I'm not picky by any means but using Uber was better in almost every way for me in NY and I stopped using cabs immediately.

Agree on the cleanliness - most cabs are fine. However, try getting a yellow cab from Manhattan to Brooklyn after 9PM, especially in a popular/busy area.

Anecdotally I'd estimate there's a 1 in 3 chance of the driver either driving off/refusing the route, having a "broken meter/card machine", but will take (a large amount of) cash or (if you appear to be from out of town) taking a ridiculously long route.

I hate those screens--so loud and so difficult (or impossible) to mute or turn off. If I want infotainment, I have a cell phone in my pocket.

In contrast to that, in Los Angeles, Uber drivers quite often are not familiar with the area they serve, so they are glued to their navigation apps. This can not only create unsafe driving conditions, but sometimes can cause an Uber ride to take twice as long as a taxi ride.

If convenience, comfort, and customer service are not a priority, and I just need to get somewhere fast, the taxi is still the way to go.

> but sometimes can cause an Uber ride to take twice as long as a taxi ride

I never imagined navigation apps could suck like that! I have no love for Uber, but I always imagined any navigation app will on average outperform even a knowledgeable driver.

I noticed this in San Francisco and i really think it depends on the devices. The iPhone users? Mostly spot on. But several other Uber/Lyft experiences with drivers that had lower cost phones (mostly the freebie Samsung or Motorola Android devices) were having issues with navigation.

The iPhone and higher end Samsung devices definitely have more accurate GPS chipsets built in and were doing a way better job of keeping track of where we were.

It's often not the navigation directions that suck, but the ability for the driver to drive effectively while glued to the GPS unit.

I remember this one time in an uberX where the driver missed the Manhattan Bridge onramp turnoff 3 times in a row and had to circle around. The GPS directions were good, but inexperience also includes being unprepared to execute the directions given to you.

One good example I can think of is if there is a no-right-turn-on-red combined with an unusually long red light. These are common in intersections with 4 green-left-turn arrows.

A knowledgeable driver might know to make a right turn at an earlier intersection, whereas the navigation apps do not always account for this.

> > but sometimes can cause an Uber ride to take twice as long as a taxi ride

> I always imagined any navigation app will on average outperform even a knowledgeable driver.

On average, probably. Worst case and on-average aren't the same thing, though.

What a load of shit! I have lived in LA for 15 years. Taken my share of taxis but a lot more Uber. Uber has been 98% of the time fairly priced, clean and safe. No Uber ride has ever taken twice as long as the taxi ride. If anything I had to watch the taxi driver like a hawk to make sure he didn't take the wrong exit or shoot off into a canyon to run up the bill. Good luck actually finding a taxi by the way, in LA. I hope Uber and its ilk drive taxis out of business.

With respect, I find these stories hard to believe. I've been in a very large number of NY taxis and very rarely had these experiences. Cabs aren't problem-free or pristine, but they are almost universally clean enough and very functional.

The cab driver doesn't want a bad-smelling, filthy cab either; they work in it, it affects their income, and the great majority are responsible, reasonable people.

Why would anyone believe otherwise? I think there's some class-based stereotyping here - maybe not in the parent comment, but in these comments generally - cabs are working class, Uber is professional class. Working class is the 'other' to many professional people; something foreign, unknown, and scary.

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