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In theory, harsh prison conditions deter would-be criminals.

Do you have any evidence that reality conforms to this theory?

>>Do you have any evidence that reality conforms to this theory?

Do you have any evidence that reality doesn't conform to this theory?

Not a counter-question just for the sake of counter-questioning; I am sincerely interested in knowing.

The US has harsh sentences and high crime.

Is it possible we would have higher crime with lighter sentences?

This in itself doesn't prove anything. Compared to what it's harsh and high? e.g. China may have harsher sentences and lower crime.