Sure, if you can accurately create that impression among the population of likely bike thieves. Not so much if you're only impressing that upon the average citizen.
Though I suppose the population of bike thieves once was part of the "average citizenry"
That's a good point, although I'm not sure if it's accurate. I wonder what patterns of bike theft have looked like for the last 150 years or so.
but the avg citizen doesn't have reason to care about the likelihood of getting caught.
In a place like Japan of course, where the odds of being caught are higher, and the social consequences of stealing a bike are devastating, you do see less of that kind of crime. Emphasis on "See".