> People do not commit a crime (most times) expecting to be caught, and so the penalty phase isn't a factor.

> The result is that the only way to impress upon people that crime "doesn't pay", is to make the rate of solving crimes in general much higher.

If you're trying to impress upon people that crime doesn't pay, doesn't it also make sense to focus on creating the impression that the rate of solving crimes is higher?

You don't have to catch more bike thieves, you just have to make them believe that they're going to get caught.