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Comment by pavlov | Hacker News Reader

Bizarrely, I remember a recent HN discussion where a poster was arguing that any software developer who is not working in machine learning is like a plumber.

I guess this means that the entire profession consists of janitors and plumbers.

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Considering that plumbers and janitors have likely, in the entire history of human civilization, done more for health and longevity than doctors and scientists...I'm kind of ok with this analogy.

Doctors, maybe, but it was the scientists who told them about the germ theory of disease, for instance.

I've read, but not confirmed for myself, that in the US the biggest gains in health came in the post-Civil War period, when "plumbers and janitors" made the difference. Of course, that's really starting with, after the science, the civil engineers who designed the public works systems that supplied clean water and took away sewage, and let's not forget that politicians and like who found it worthwhile to buy votes that way (now, they take our infrastructure for granted and buy votes more directly...).

Sure, that's true of recent (< 200 yr ago) history, but plumbing's contribution to health and longevity goes all the way back to ancient Rome. (Somewhat ironically, plumbing, from the Latin word for lead, "plumbus", may have also contributed indirectly to Rome's eventual decline.)

Confirmation: https://ello.co/dredmorbius/post/MsQfdPAn_0XUdZUoReBfbg

Thanks! There was a delay after the Civil War as you'd expect from all the chaos and disruption that caused (e.g. MIT got its charter before the outbreak, but wasn't able to start up until after), but it's pretty clear, and gets really dramatic the further you go forward.

I've been studying the period (mostly the Industrial Revolution and onward, though the accelleration of the late 19th / early 20th century is staggering), and it's pretty phenomenal.

There was a lot going on. Germ theory, of course, was part of it. But public health measures, especially sewerage systems, clean drinking water, and municipal waste removal, were all massive contributors. Note that the decline in mortality occurs well in advance of antibiotics and even most vaccinations.

For all the recent debate on vaccinations, it's interesting to note that the peak period of their impace (roughly 1930 - 1960) saw relatively little reduction in mortality, though there was a large decrease in disease incidence. It turns out that with septic control, antibiotics, food quality, and nutrition, many viral diseases weren't killers, but did present quality-of-life issues. And yes, often quite severe -- polio was no joke, and I know people who've suffered lameness from it myself. Measles and smallpox are similarly scarring and have long-term impacts.

But the major impacts of virtually all medicine are front-loaded to the period before 1950, with much the gains since attributable to either greater access (especially for the disadvantaged) and removal of environmental agonists (lead, tobacco, alcohol, asbestos, miscellaneous poisons, safety hazards).

In the minds of middle management, I think this is precisely correct.

and as pointed out so much, is entirely why nobody wants to work for them. Respect these very bright people znd you have a starting negotiation position.

I recently had a plumber do some work on a >100-year-old apartment. I was lucky: he's a very good plumber.

The job didn't involve too many "pipelines" but the knowledge and creativity required to make them work was well above what I see from most software developers.

"Plumber" is not the put-down that poster thought it was.

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