"My prime example: When Apple released the iPad it quickly became a great hit. For me it was obvious that a lot of cheap copycats would spawn soon. What would you use for a cheap iPad knockoff? An ARM processor for sure. Strategy: Buy ARM and hold for years. F"

Do you think that Wall Street hasn't figured that out?

Apple is one of the most watched stocks in the world. To the original commenters point: the banks have reams of 'technically astute' Analysts making those assessments, and much, much, more.

Wall Street has people all the way up and down Apple's value chain. They pay 'consultants' the world over to eek out any tiny bit of information WRT Apple's supply chain.

Again - I agree with the original commenter: individual traders are severely outgunned when it comes to these things and that's why they lose money.

Yes - theoretically, there are some very narrow areas where a savvy investor might be able to win, and surely, Wall St. has some gaping systematic problems ... but by enlarge, I agree with the sentiment of the analysis as well, even as other have pointed out flaws.

Investing is 90% gambling. The world only has so much GDP growth and there's not enough to go around to make every investor super happy. Most returns that an investor makes are someone else's loss. The losers are usually those with less information, or are lazy about it all (like some 'big dumb funds')