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Comment by jlgaddis | Hacker News Reader

If you have accumulated 10-15 years worth of savings, that money should be somewhere it is earning a return (easily beating out inflation). It certainly should not be in your savings or checking account at the local bank.

I have roughly six months worth of expenses in cash, that I could go take out of the bank right now should something happen. I'll be fine as long as the remainder is somewhere I can get to (some of) it within six months -- and it is.

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I think you missed the first sentence of my earlier comment:

> That assumes decent real returns on investment, which I'm not convinced really exist any more without taking on more risk than many are comfortable with.

I can't see anything right now that isn't at bubble levels based on the expectation of zero interest rates continuing forever everywhere. Maybe they will, but I think at that point you're gambling rather than investing, and gambling doesn't appeal to everyone.

So maybe hold the cash and short-term assets you feel compelled to have, and index the market with the rest? It may decrease in value for a time, but if you avoid realizing those losses, it'll likely bounce back. If you think the whole economy is in for a serious contraction with a decade+ horizon for recovery, you could go into previous metals, but you may just be screwed either way.

I actually do believe that the US is in for serious contraction due to the unsustainable infrastructure and development patterns. I'm hanging out in the market anyway, because the federal reserve and misplaced public trust in municipal bonds will kick that can decades further down the road before we ever face the facts.

Until then, I know that I don't have the forecasting ability of large banks, so I play the game with the only advantage I've got: patience.

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