Yep, Apple giveth and Apple taketh away - broad categories of things that are considered user-hostile are banned, and if you try to do it Apple swings the banhammer liberally.
Also Apple's guidelines re: permissions is that the app must degrade in the absence of permissions gracefully, and any kind of "punishing the user" for denying perms is absolutely prohibited.
For all the bad things about the walled garden, this is one perk that is real.
As for Apple walking back on these things - anything is possible, but considering how hard they've been beating on the user privacy drum I doubt this will change in the foreseeable future
IMO the "zero" ID is preferable to a random ID. This way if anyone has legitimate reason to detect for this condition they can, but Apple has enough control over the platform to ban anyone doing so abusively. It's also more in line with Apple's permission systems (e.g., you can detect if you have Contacts permissions, rather than it returning, say, fake/empty contacts).