If we assume that life is common enough* that it will evolve independently multiple times in the future, then the chance we are "the first" is closer to that of being "the last", unless you have a convincing prior I'm unaware of. So it should be a pretty low probability.

Don't you think?

*Common in the sense of "easy enough to create", i.e. the macrostate corresponding to "life" can be made up of a very large number of microstates.