This is something that has long been feared. It's also rather like the Y2K problem in that as long as people make a noise about it, it can be prevented - but preventing it leaves all the complainers looking alarmist.
It's also why Valve have invested in the Steam Machine. At the moment it's not a serious competitive prospect, but it's there ready as an escape valve.
After all, only one company can get a 10-30% cut of games sold to run on Windows, and Microsoft don't see why it shouldn't be them.
Microsoft do phase things out, but only slowly, with long migration times for business users.