I think it's a complex situation, not as simple as saying "elephants died, therefore bad".
Additionally, since it's very scarce, you might see a very large price increase (because of increased demand due to no risk of law enforcement and less stigma), and if that price increases to more than the prior black market prices, that will incentivize more poachers.
Markets are inherently complex beasts. Trying to tweak a market for desired behavior is hard enough. Creating a new market and thinking we understand all the consequences and how it will play out when it's this important is insane.
It only drives the price up and makes crime and violence more likely as the rewards are even higher. Take the market for all kinds of drugs as an easy example. Making it illegal is very short-sighted: it doesn't suddenly make drugs disappear from society, it just makes it more expensive and this incentivizes people to crime to protect their drug business. If it was legal, drug crime would dry up overnight, like it did when Alcohol prohibition ended. You don't see the brewing company that makes Miller lite take out a hit on Yuengling Lager nowadays, do you?
If you want to preserve these animals, legal markets for them should be strongly encouraged. Think of solutions that may be developed as far as harvesting ivory that wouldn't kill the animals if it was legal. Maybe private farming that sustains these populations in some way would be developed. Chickens that lay eggs aren't in danger of going extinct anytime soon because they're being preserved because they make people money. Just having a market for a good isn't a bad thing.
Just driving it underground harder and harder encourages poor and desperate people to risk everything for a massive payday.
What's the black market price for Kinder Surprise eggs, an item that's illegal in the US.
Comparing this with drugs is not the same. No one "needs" ivory the same way they "need" heroin.
> Making it illegal is very short-sighted:
Why is it that poaching skyrockets whenever the restrictions are relaxed?
> Think of solutions that may be developed as far as harvesting ivory that wouldn't kill the animals if it was legal.
How does that stop poaching?
> Maybe private farming that sustains these populations in some way would be developed.
Do you know much about elephants? Do you know much about elephant husbandry? Can you talk a bit more about these proposals and the possible problems?
Kinder eggs are not a good analogy. The market demand is not really for "Kinder eggs" it is for "kid's chocolate." The segment has many alternatives. If all chocolate was banned (or difficult to source as it was in the Soviet Union) we would indeed see a thriving black market (as it was in SU).
Because restriction on consumption alone are not effective. One must address the production side of the equation (through farming, artificial ivory, forced dehorning).
If you've got evidence to the contrary I'd love to see it.
As well, part of the draw of ivory is that it is illegal. "I have something you can't even legally buy! 3 people died getting me this!". There is something about the illegality of it that draws people to it, it's a "forbidden fruit". By legalizing the trade, you remove this "benefit" of ivory ownership. Now the ivory owner has no cool stories to tell about his purchase, he's just a rich prick who bought it from some dealer, like you might buy a car.
Also it's impossible to setup a legal market because there is no way of distinguishing 'legal' ivory from 'illegal' ivory.
Leaded gasoline has increased fuel efficiency, due to the higher effective octane rating.
> Is there a suitable alternative for Ivory? (I know basically nothing about it).
There's no application where ivory is required. It's purely decorative. Anywhere that you "need" ivory, you could use plastic. In most cases, you could probably also use painted/stained wood or a number of other materials.
This could just as easily be from social stigma than from laws. I can't think of anything more socially repulsive. The point is, restricting legality is not necessarily the best way to address a problem—it is just the easy way for people to throw money at a problem.
A possible parallel is that in France the trade of wolf fur is forbidden. There are still a few sellers per month on our equivalent of Craig's list and ebay, but they quickly get taken down by 'vigilantes' reporting them to the website. Not sure about the black market running completely outside of the Internet.