I think you mean lower expected value, no? The way you put it cash is strictly better in every way than options - both higher expectation and lower risk. According to you there's no upside to options relative to cash.
EV = payout * probability
So for cash:
EV = 150k (or whatever your salary is) * 100% (it's guaranteed)
For equity it might be:
EV = 1M * 10% = 100k
I guess the same type of mind that believes meritocracy really exists could believe such a thing...
Does my last employer not have a large contract with Prudential, because of my work?
This is what every self-respecting capitalist believes and knows in their heart. Employees are resources. If a founder doesn't know that they will fail.
Maybe you thought startups were an exception and that startup employees are unique snowflakes but BigCo employees are drones?
> Does my last employer not have a large contract with Prudential, because of my work?
If that contract is what made the business viable, then the company must be completely fucked without you and be on their way to failure. If the contract didn't make a substantial difference in the company's outlook, then how does that relate to my point?
>Maybe you thought startups were an exception and that startup employees are unique snowflakes but BigCo employees are drones?
No, I just don't think anything can be done without people and that one person is not the same as another.
> If that contract is what made the business viable, then the company must be completely fucked without you and be on their way to failure.
In any startup with <5 employees if an early employee leaves it's a huge risk to the company that may result in bankruptcy or failure of the company. Engineer #1 is as important as a founder in the startups I've worked at.
If there are 3 founders and 2 non-founder employees, then typically each employee is doing (approximately) 20% of the work. Not many small companies can just shrug off losing 20% of their workforce.
> This is what every self-respecting capitalist believes and knows in their heart. Employees are resources. If a founder doesn't know that they will fail.
I hate to be rude but WTF are you talking about? I've known several successful startup CEOs and they keep good employees close and well taken care of. For one thing, startups usually fail, so you're going to have to keep your good employees open to working with you on your next attempt, and if you keep treating them like slaves/resources they won't come with you to your next venture. Second, how are you going to recruit new talent if your reputation as a founder is that you treat your employees like interchangeable "resources"?
Did I "positively influence the outcome" in the company I work for? Almost assuredly.
Of course, this is coming from a mind which does basically believe in a meritocracy, so...
I don't know the actual answer (and it would be difficult to convince me that anybody has all the data either) but many people "experienced" with startups believe that so many more options come out worthless that cash is strictly better, better expected return at lower risk.
however, in the same way that the freakonomics guys explain people playing state lotteries even thought they are "not worth it": state lotteries (and startups) offer some of the few chances that most people have to actually get rich, so even though they don't pay off on average, they are "the only way" and "worth it" to some people. Not claiming that these people have clear ideas about either expected values or risks involved, but they have clear ideas that "it's the only way". For workers at many skill levels, they may have a sense that in their industry they won't be too much worse off in the long run so why not take a shot.