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Comment by seibelj | Hacker News Reader

Ethereum is such a mess! I have a close friend that invested $12k in ether, then the value increased to $40k, then he invested a ton into the DAO, which tanked, then he doubled down and purchased even more DAO at a discount on the assumption of a fork that would reimburse DAO tokens to parity and he would make a killing. He's sweating bullets over all of this. Last night he was going nuts over the soft fork crisis. I don't know how he does it, $12k is a lot for him

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Investing 101: never invest more than you can afford to lose.

I shorted ether after this whole debacle started but the fact it's still trading above $10 is mind-boggling. I believe in the technology and that this will benefit it in the long-term but for now, it's either in one huge bubble or someone is fixing things up.

Even more important, Never speculate with more than you can afford to lose.

Alternatively: A market can afford to be 'wrong' for longer than you can afford to bet against it.

All investing is speculation.

ill agree nothing is zero risk. But there is way safer stuff than DAO

Fully agree, I worked with the real jr mining industry, it's the exact same kind of bullshit.

Why not just call it BreX coin and drop the pretense?

TheDAO was explicitly a bad investment, it was like investing in Slockit but without having any actual shares or legal recourse.

My friend invested $5000 at a blackjack table in Macau, at one point his $5000 had increased to $40000. He ended up walking away with $2000.

The difference between the two stories is that my friend friend had a really good time. Why? Because he knew that he wasn't "investing", he was gambling. If your friend is gambling with more than he can afford, he has a gambling problem and should seek help.

Indeed, I have as much sympathy as your friend as someone who stresses over his 'investments' in alpha quality cryptocurrency software.

The primary motivation should be investing in technology and the concepts behind it, not looking for instant-rich ROI.

That is precisely how I trade. My positions depend on my long-term belief in the technology, if I believe in it then the general direction of my positions will reflect that. I'll short it, yeah but I'll always have a stash.

Sounds more like speculation / gambling instead of investing.

It really is much like that. Some people rely on Technical Analysis to make sense of things but TA is like Astrolgy to most crypto-traders.

> but TA is like Astrolgy to most crypto-traders.

Isn't TA like astrology...period? i.e. not just to crypto-traders?

I can't speak to stocks, but I use TA tools for some relatively ineffecient markets that just have fundamental volatility and trends. I could write my own methods and algorithms but the TA guys already wrote them for me.

To be honest, I am not familiar with other forms of trading so I didn't want to make that statement.

Sounds like greed to me. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

At one point his $12k became $40k. Proper risk management and he can then invest with his profits.

Yep, this is why pro's have clearly established stop-loss and take-profit levels before they enter a trade.

Exactly. Take the 300%+ return . Get out of the game ahead. Doubling down is risky.

Heck at least pull your principle out and ride the rest.

Hindsight bias.

He probably shouldn't have gambled the $12k to begin with, even though the first spin of the wheel turned out ok.

Assuming $12k is a lot to this guy.

Sometimes having skin in the game can help one learn. But one must never forget to learn, must develop a risk mitigation strategy that allows one to continue saving.

He can still sell his DAO tokens at nearly at par, what is the problem?

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