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Comment by HockeyPlayer | Hacker News Reader

For #1, are you looking for a 1 in 10 chance of a 5x return, or a 1 in 100 chance of a 50x return?

For #2, if you don't want to spend the serious time and money (because you will lose some money while learning) becoming a angel investor, consider investing in a fund that does angel size investing. David Cohen of TechStars runs a small fund that does seed stage investing, and I'm sure you can find others as that is a hot area.

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For #1 You can beat those odds by going to Vagas. It's not hard to get a 1 in 10 chance of 9.5x return or a 1 in 100 chance of a 95x return. What you want is a 1 in 3 chance of a 30x return within 5 years.

PS: This is also why most VC funds make so little money for the investors.

> It's not hard to get a 1 in 10 chance of 9.5x return or a 1 in 100 chance of a 95x return Does 2x on $100 leave me a total of $200 or $300.

> What you want is a 1 in 3 chance of a 30x return within 5 years Obviously, that will be hard to find. If you did 100 of those, you'd be getting a 10x return in 5 years.

My original question to the poster stands. Are you looking for a real long shot, or something with a decent chance of paying off?

To answer your question. My original thinking in setting aside $50k was to expose myself to "positive black swans." I'm looking to place a series of improbable bets such that if one pays off in a major way...

I do like the idea of investing in an angel fund to get my feet wet. I'll consider that.

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