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Comment by 6d6b73 | Hacker News Reader

We need to setup carbon credits system for Mars! We have to stop warming of Mars caused by our planetary probes.

Isn't it plausible that the same force that is causing warming on Mars is the main cause of our problems on Earth?

Not really, no... The factors that cause large scale climate changes on planets relate to how the orbit of the planet changes over time, in periodic ways. Mars and Earth, being different planets, have a different "schedule" for warming/cooling.

Earth is actually "supposed" to be heading into a cooler period, but it's clear that human influence has dramatically changed that timeline.

Here's a great overview of some of the factors involved:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztninkgZ0ws

The planet might still be going into a cooler period, while what we see right now is just a temporary warming that will trigger that cooling. ( i.e warming causes glaciers to melt, which in turns changes/stops jet streams, which lowers the temperature all over the globe )

The data collected points unanimously to this not having happened in the previous ice ages.

Melting glaciers results in a lower albedo, which results in more warming.

It's not like they orbit the same star or anything.

The star is not the primary driver of periodic climate variation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Except for Mar's climate change happens on the course of hundreds of thousands of years, and yet here on Earth the biggest climate change has happened in the past 100-200 years, and just so happens to perfectly coincide with humans discovering industry etc.

I assume if humans didn't exist Earth would still have climate change, see also: ice ages etc.. but that kind of thing doesn't happen over the course of 100 years, not without some external influence anyway (such as an asteroid impact etc)

Well, doesn't Earth go through warm and cold periods just as Mars does? In fact not so long ago we had a mini ice age, and that was not caused by human activities. We are destroying our environment, and I'm not climate change denier, but I do think this is little more complex issue than we're being told.

Not only that, but not so long ago (in geological terms) the Midwestern United States was covered in several miles of ice.

We are technically still in an ice age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

In fact the Little Ice Age was probably caused in part by human activity, or rather the lack of human activity due to reduced populations in Europe and especially in the Americas.

>> on Earth the biggest climate change has happened in the past 100-200 years

Oh, really?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#/m...

Look at the scales on that chart. It starts at millions of years before present, then drops to thousands of years before present, and then our last 200 years is basically a vertical line at the very end of the graph.

Yes, really "NumberCruncher". Which period on that chart do you think shows a more rapid change?

There are several periods in the Pleistocene that see dramatic rises. The graph itself, with it's logarithmic scale on the X axis, does not make it at all clear. Also, the methods used to determine the average temperature are necessarily going to be different for the Pleistocene than now. That makes it inherently hard to make useful comparisons.

What's your point? If you're posting a graph as confusing as this one (4 completely different x scales) at least tell us your interpretation.

I didn't find it confusing.

This is a silly comment.

>unlike Earth, climate change on Mars is affected primarily by how "tilted" the planet is.

>Mars’ axis is currently tilted 25 degrees, but it wobbles between from 10 to 40 degrees.

So a different effect.

Well, our planet also has axial precession, so the same effect could be causing the warming on our planet right?

Yes, it absolutely does cause warming at times. In fact, prior to human effects, it was the driving cause of climate variation. These periodic variations driven by orbital changes are called Milankovitch cycles[1].

Unfortunately for your theory, Earth's axial tilt is decreasing at the moment, and therefore we should be in the 'cooling' phase of the cycle.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Nope, that effect is currently making Earth colder, but is being overwhelmed by greenhouse effects resulting in net higher temperatures.

> it wobbles

But it doesn't fall down.

No, please read the article. It says the main driver of climate change on Mars is the wobbliness of its axis, which is not a factor on Earth.

It absolutely is a factor on Earth. Right now the axial tilt of the Earth is decreasing, which should be resulting in a cooling effect.

Earth also has axial precession, so "wobbliness" could be a factor on Earth.

Indeed it is. James Hansen discussed it at length in his book Storms of My Grandchildren.

You may have heard that in the geological record, warming often begins before CO2 rises. The wobbling is the reason for that. It causes a little warming, the warming causes some CO2 to be released, the CO2 causes more warming, and then you've got a positive feedback cycle that warms up the planet by several degrees.

That's why scientists are so worried that the CO2 we're emitting will cause a major problem.

Sure, all the things you're suggesting "could" be factors. Are you saying you think climatologists have not thought of any of these ideas? Or they've investigated them and made some massive mistake? They're all lying?

>Are you saying you think climatologists have not thought of any of these ideas?

Yes.

> Or they've investigated them and made some massive mistake?

Yes.

>They're all lying?

Yes.

Whatever it takes to bring in those grants money!

> Isn't it plausible that the same force that is causing warming on Mars is the main cause of our problems on Earth?

Your hypothesis is about as likely as the one where human activity on Earth is causing warming on Mars. No. Climate change is not really in dispute, and neither are its origins in human activity.

> Isn't it plausible that the same force that is causing warming on Mars is the main cause of our problems on Earth?

If only thousands of climate scientists had spent decades doing research on such things and come to an overwhelming scientific consensus! That'd be so nice.

consensus != truth

The scientific method is thus far the best way we've demonstrated to finding out the truth.

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