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Comment by okc | Hacker News Reader

It is, I agree. But when push comes to shove it demonstrates internationally countries wouldn't support defending Taiwan if China did invade.

They couldn't even support Taiwan as a country politically because China bribed and bullied other countries to disagree with recognising Taiwan.

Hong Kongs a different case but shows how international support can be subdued by China.

Taiwan is a reality. Its growing military force supports this too. I don't think and I hope China would never invade.

I totally agree Taiwan is a country. But internationally this isn't often recognised and might give an invasion more clout. Ukraine/russia springs to mind as a similar scenario. Not the Ukraine weren't a country but that they didn't have enough international presence for anyone to properly back them up, when invaded.

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> it demonstrates internationally countries wouldn't support defending Taiwan if China did invade.

China does not have any reason to invade Taiwan. Taiwan is a peaceful nation. The people of Taiwan identify as Taiwanese, not Chinese. Taiwan is very different from the other areas you mention.

I agree with you! Taiwan is peaceful and Taiwanese people are Taiwanese. And yes Taiwan is different to the areas I mentioned. I also agree that China doesn't really have a reason to invade Taiwan.

Taiwan isn't recognised internationally as a country (not fully). If China did have a reason to invade (not a crazy idea given the history) then the international response may be very lacking.

Either way, China has and does continue to try and make Taiwan powerless as in independent country. Its been fairly successful in this respect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_re...

> I also agree that China doesn't really have a reason to invade Taiwan.

...

> If China did have a reason to invade (not a crazy idea given the history)

These two statements are in direct conflict with each other. Agree to disagree

> Either way, China has and does continue to try and make Taiwan powerless as in independent country. Its been fairly successful in this respect.

Taiwan definitely has power. It takes strength to create your own territory and government. It also takes strength for the people to elect an entirely new party into office, which just happened in Taiwan.

It's not just about who has a bigger military or more allies. There are many more variables.

Despite Chinese propaganda, many people in China and elsewhere in the world do know that Taiwan is its own country and is not part of China.

Its all relative.

Its not a contradiction to say at the moment China doesn't have much reason to invade - but also point they have had reason before and may again. Let me put it better: they have a latent reason. As someone pointed out in this thread If Taiwan asserts its independence, Chinese have not officially ruled out an invasion. I also know this isn't the reality of current climate.

I agree Taiwan has power, and power has a lot of variables. Being a non-member state of the UN, because of China bribing other states, shows that this power has been shaped by China to some extent. Not having official embassies in many countries - shows the same thing.

People do know Taiwan is a country not part of China. But they don't always officially recognise that.

Combine this quasi-international presence with an invasion and your idea of Taiwan's power variables might shift to being based on the size of its military and its official international recognition. thats where ukraine and hong kong are relevant - to an extent.

The Taiwanese military is bigger than ever, so I think theres at least a little relevance in all this. Not relevance that theres gonna be an invasion, but relevance of the latent power plays that effect diplomatic relations.

> I think theres at least a little relevance in all this. Not relevance that theres gonna be an invasion, but relevance of the latent power plays that effect diplomatic relations.

You're certainly free to express your opinion. I disagree with your thesis that China might invade and that the world will stand by and watch.

Government workers in China produce fake social media. That only influences so much inside China, and it changes nothing outside of China.

Government workers produce fake social media outside of China too. Public opinion outside of China is very important for business and strategy.

Present China as an improving progressive regime, smooth over its human rights problems, and china can gain more influence internationally. If you are dealing with China, keeping one eye closed can be very profitable.

The UK gave Hong Kong back to China, regardless of what people living in Hong Kong wanted. They are now heavily mutually invested underwriting loans for nuclear powerplants: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-34306997

In case of invasion, this kind of thing makes a big difference. Invasion aside it continues to shape Taiwans influence - why do you think Taiwan is not a UN member state and China is?

> Present China as an improving progressive regime, smooth over its human rights problems, and china can gain more influence internationally. If you are dealing with China, keeping one eye closed can be very profitable.

You seem to hold government propaganda in very high esteem. I do not. I believe that free press leads to the strongest economic powerhouses. You get the best of a population when you allow them all to contribute to it.

Giving a bigger mouthpiece to a few people via authoritarian propaganda machines only sows discontent. Sooner or later, that discontent grows up, and rather than becoming productive, creative members of society, those people are imprisoned. Plus, the government needs to spend energy to lock these folks up. It drains a country of its resources.

China would help itself so much more simply by being less oppressive.

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