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I don't think 538 gets it even now.

Trump is a celebrity who gets free media coverage and people aspire to. So of course he was a serious contender from Day One.

The fact that he is not polished for the media is a plus to most people.

As one woman said to a news reporter earlier in the campaign, "Well, I could vote for the other candidate. But he's a politician."

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> The fact that he is not polished for the media is a plus to most people.

He is EXTREMELY polished. He's a professional personality. He's been doing it for a decade, wooing audiences. He knows how to do it.

What he is not, is a politician.

> Well, I could vote for the other candidate. But he's a politician.

exactly.

People aren't happy, and they'll vote for anyone that isn't "more of the same". eg Trump and Sanders.

Identifying the Reasons in hindsight is not the point. There are always Reasons but if you can't reliably identify them before the event rather than after then it's not of any predictive interest.

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