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Because there is a big selection bias in university education, it's hard to say that Harvard caused someones income to go up using your math. I prefer this post from last year which tries to calculate value-added.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/value-u...

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Why does selection bias even matter? If you go to Harvard, you will make more than had you gone to a boring state school. Period. Is there selection bias? Yes. Does it change the fact the Harvard kid is wildly successful? No.

Because if the effects are due to selection bias, and you've been accepted to both Harvard and State School, you should pick State and earn an even higher return.

If it's not selection bias, then you can conclude Harvard causes success and you should go there.

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