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Comment by tristanj | Hacker News Reader

I wish people would take the California earthquake situation more seriously. We've had decades of warning yet are still minimally prepared for disaster. The sad thing is, the only way we'll see real change is after a major earthquake where thousands of people are killed/injured. Then people will fight/sue/vote for change. It's just like in the city I live in, where we have multiple known-to-be unsafe traffic intersections. Only after there's a serious accident and someone sues the traffic lights get built. It's unfortunate that even today, the cost of change is priced in human lives.

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When I lived in Vancouver in the 80s, they had earthquake drills because scientists said "It was too long, we're due for a Big One!" Everyone took them seriously.

30 years later, no significant earthquake, and earthquake drills are nothing but a distant memory. I think humans are really terrible judges of what "long overdue" means, especially related to geological events.

Yes, at some point there will be an earthquake. Yes, some people will die. But overreacting and worrying about it when humans have no ability to predict it is worse. The best way is just do what we have been doing, which is increase building standards, have once-a-year drills, and stop trying to predict when disaster is going to strike, because humans can't.

Having basic supplies on hand is just as important as building standards and drills. As I mentioned in another comment my family and friends lived through the Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 that destroyed much of the largest city on the South Island. Water, food, and shelter were all important concerns especially during the first 48 hours in some parts of the city. Even if help arrives quickly it can take several days for basic services to be restored.

If you compare similar earthquakes California might see 1,000 deaths to a quake which would kill 100,000 people in less prepared areas. IMO, they simply hit diminishing returns where an extra million can save more lives dealing with other problems.

Which California are you in? My part, Southern California, we take it very seriously and so does the local government. There are earthquake drills, the building codes reflect the environment and CalTrans has reinforced the freeways over the last 20 years. Will Southern California come out unscath in a large earthquake? No, but our death and injury rate will be lower than similar quakes in other parts of the world.

Here in the South-East, the same thing happens with hurricanes every time there are a handful of consecutive years with no major storm. Then a large one hits and everyone gets surprised.

If this happens with hurricanes, I can only imagine how the perception of saftety/danger gets skewed with earthquakes—which occur way less frequently than hurricanes.

What action have you taken to have a new traffic light installed?

Given that seismic upgrades have been underway for decades, I'm not sure what you mean by "minimally prepared."

The rules apply to all new construction, yes. But there are thousands of unsafe buildings built in the 60s and 70s that are grandfathered into the seismic safety rules.

Some cities have made an effort to retrofit these buildings (Napa and Los Angeles come to mind) but there isn't a state driven effort to do so.

I'd be more concerned about Seattle.

Yup, throw in Rainier there for good measure and you've got yourself a proper natural disaster.

There's also long been talk about a big earthquake due in central Utah. Really there are so many "big ones" due it'd be thematically disappointing if they didn't all happen at once and then set off Yellowstone as a finale. But in the real world, it's scary thinking about how many people will die and how poorly it will be handled. Anything that could cripple a large part of the US has worldwide ramifications, too. Living in the Seattle area the best I can hope for is that I'm individually prepared enough and will have the fortitude to help others around me as best I can.

One of the biggest risks is older "soft story" apartment buildings which tend to collapse in earthquakes. Some Bay Area city governments are aggressively working to retrofit them. http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/housing/softstory/

To be fair, we act this way about _all_ disasters.

Humanity as a collective is comparable to cockroaches. Purely reactive to their environment, completely oblivious to the information that could make it proactive.

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