Why is it that some people, regardless of how much they eat and how little they exercise, never put on weight? That, to me, is the elephant in the room.
What is going on in these peoples bodies that is kept out of popular science with regard to weight loss? We know that thyroid hormone function affects weight and metabolism. In women reproductive hormones also affect weight, oestrogen is a hormone present in both males and females, so there's some crossover there. We know that adrenal function can affect weight. We know that insulin resistance can affect weight.
There has to be more to it that calories in - calories out = weigh gain or loss.
If you have an unaddressed thyroid, reproductive hormone, insulin, or adrenal issue you're going to be working hard to address your weight.
It is my suspicion that fixing the diet first improves weight control better than exercise because food is medicine. Anything you put in your body on a daily basis can be medicinal in that it can act to help your body restore homoeostasis or move further away from it.