"Based on the research, Pontzer has proposed a new model that upends the the old "calories in, calories out" approach to exercise... He calls this the "constrained model" of energy expenditure, which shows that the effect of more physical activity on the human body is not linear."
"10) So what actually works for weight loss?
At the individual level, some very good research on what works for weight loss comes from the National Weight Control Registry, a study that has parsed the traits, habits, and behaviors of adults who have lost at least 30 pounds and kept it off for a minimum of one year. They currently have more than 10,000 members enrolled in the study, and these folks respond to annual questionnaires about how they've managed to keep their weight down.
The researchers behind the study found that people who have had success losing weight share a few things in common: They weigh themselves at least once a week. They restrict their calorie intake, stay away from high-fat foods, and watch their portion sizes. They also exercise regularly.
But note: These folks use physical activity in addition to calorie counting and other behavioral changes. Every reliable expert I've ever spoken to on weight loss says the most important thing a person can do is to limit calories in a way they like and can sustain, and focus on eating more healthfully.
In general, diet with exercise can work better than calorie cutting alone, but with only marginal additional weight-loss benefits. "
It doesn't upend it, it basically just says "Don't count calorie expenditures as part of your caloric deficit", which has been standard advice for every resource I've used for quite some time.
The traditional model proposes a much simpler linear relationship: do an additional unit of exercise and you will burn X more calories, forever. He says that is incorrect and you actually get diminishing returns, where additional units of exercise burn ever fewer calories rather than just a constant.
The article goes into some detail about this, mentioning that a great deal of that research was funded by companies that make sugary drinks and other high-calorie food.
That's why I said that you have to find some compromise that works for yourself, I didn't say where that balance lay for most people.
Furthermore, the graph of energy expenditure over time (in section 10) directly agrees with what calories in/calories out predicts. See, for example, how perfectly the "very low calorie diet" agrees with the exponential decay predicted by theory.
https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2011/weight_stability.htm...
I think what they mean by this is that the "calories out" portion is what is mostly wrong (or at least, misunderstood ), not that "calories in" are probably the most significant factor when it comes to fat loss. They don't seem to dispute this.
The human body is a very complex, non-linear thing. Discerning operating principles by looking solely at inputs and outputs is a hard problem.