I hope flash goes away. I have half the mind to uninstall it from my computer. Most flash content is just ads and sites that don't really need flash for whatever it is they're doing.
Adobe's Kuler is a great example of something that doesn't need flash. What does it do that can't be done with HTML and JavaScript? Why would someone choose flash for a project like that? Google analytics and other online chart software are another good example.
HTML5+JS can render many Flash examples, yes. A streamlined IDE and a JS engine within the browser that runs AS FAST as a compiled SWF is yet to be seen.
Flash will continue to add features to keep it above the bare-minimum "standards" that so many web developers are used to developing on. Let's face it. We all clap for HTML5+JS, but who's actually using it with their clients; who fear nothing more than a visitor not being able to view a product or service?
Let's get real about Flash and agree it isn't A Good Thing for advancement and innovation if an idea farm (which receives millions and millions of dollars in R&D) like Flash is abandoned. Come on guys. Really?
In your world, YouTube, Vimeo and experimental web development wouldn't exist.
HTML5 video and audio is being implemented TODAY because Flash created that demand at it's current rate of absorbency.
So it should die? Flash is a breeding ground for ideas. What if Flash introduced a new approach to video conferencing / VOIP and allowed developers to play with the experience among multiple audiences?
We wait for the "standards" bodies to "aggressively" implement these advancements?
Or watch all browsers attempt to implement features inconsistently and cause more pain circa 1998?
Flash death = death of experimentation and innovation in RIA.
But not as good