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Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

We know how many terrorist plots succeeded in the US. The FBI issues press releases when they stop some plot at an earlier stage. So we should have a good idea of how many terrorists plots have been stopped per actual incident.

Bombings in the US are way down. Most terrorist incidents in the last 10 years are shootings. The last big bombing was the Boston Marathon, in 2013, and that was two brothers working alone, so intel wouldn't have helped. The last organized plot was in 2009, aimed at the NYC subway and some UK targets. That was allegedly foiled by intel into Al Qaeda communications.

Since 9/11, terrorism in the US [1] has been much less of a problem than routine mass shootings.[2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_United_States... [2] http://www.shootingtracker.com

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Lot's of "successfully prevented" attacks are actually alienated, lonely men that are radicalized by the FBI, and given terror assignments by the Bureau so that they can be arrested as "lone wolf attackers":

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/16/fbi-entrapment-...

"We know how many terrorist plots succeeded in the US"

Do we? Are all terrorist plots obvious? Surely there are successful terrorist plots that have succeeded that we are unaware of.

I am saying, I doubt it's so black & white.

If nobody notices an act of terrorism, it's not terrorism.

Can you (or a populace) be influenced by something you are unaware of? If so, you can be a victim of an act terrorism without knowing of the act.

If a terrorist shoots my sister, and nobody knows it was a terrorist plot, the destabilization and other negative effects are still there. I will be afraid, perhaps not of ISIS, but I will generally be terrified that someone might shoot me too.

Terrorism is not so simple. Thinking that all terrorism must be some extreme, singular act seems short-sighted. What is the terrorist's goal?

Terrorism can be subtle and long-term.

Edit: What terrifies you? Did terrorists exclusively create this (threat of terror)? My point is, does a terrorist exclusively create terror... or do these terrorists have a broader goal beyond simple terrorism?

> Surely there are successful terrorist plots that have succeeded that we are unaware of.

No. Terrorists even take credit for things they had nothing to do with. The goal of a terrorist is to strike fear into the population by committing crimes in the most public way possible. Secrecy of the result doesn't serve this goal. The other reason to publicize is for recruiting purposes.

We certainly know the number of successful plots. Failed plots and fizzles, perhaps not.

Terrorists are incapable of misdirection? I think you are over-simplifying the intent of the terrorists...

Sounds like you need to read up on the actual intent of terrorists: http://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20about%20Terror

Thanks for the link (I love gwern). Terrorist organizations are always evolving though. For example, the ongoing PR campaign by ISIS. The PR is creating terrorists but there is never a singular attack. I would say the PR campaign is successful, but many people are unaware of it, compared to 9/11.

My point is, terrorism is not exclusively a single, concentrated moment of terror. Some terrorist plots are more subtle and long-term.

Do we?

Yes, we do. If you don't know about a terrorist plot, it is not succesful.

Let's say you are unaware of a terrorist act, can you be influenced by it?

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