I think the Saudis are gambling they can keep it together politically and financially longer than their competition can, leaving them with a de facto monopoly.

It's a very ballsy move, but it's also a very dangerous one, because the Saudi regime relies heavily on direct patronage - handouts - and if those stop happening there's a real danger of instability.

It's also very dangerous to poke Russia too hard, because Putin really isn't likely to say "Fine then, I'll just give up."

This could all end very badly for everyone.