Comment by Throwaway23412 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by Throwaway23412 | Hacker News Reader

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Maybe I'm misinterpreting you or you're misinterpreting me, but I feel like I'm arguing against the concept of predicting the future. It's absurd that this is even an argument.

And when I say the top 1% are significantly better at making predictions than the average person, I mean better in certainty and specificity.

Look at yours and spangry's comments. Full of vagueness.

"Appropriate to scream bloody murder".

About what exactly? It's certainly appropriate to scream bloody murder about things that are happening. It would be nonsensical to scream bloody murder about something that isn't happening.

"the economic depression that will occur in the next 5 years will be started by bubbles popping in residential property markets"

What a huge range of uncertainty. So when is this economic depression occurring? Tomorrow? 2017? 2021? What kind of economic depression? Minor? Major? Capable of plunging the world into the Great Depression? Such vague predictions are fundamentally worthless to the average person.

But you're not actually arguing the concept of predicting the future, you're arguing that when you throw something up, you can't predict that it's going to come down.

Look at the charts, the writing is on the wall, denying at this point because the talking heads on the television are telling you that everything is going to be alright while it's very clearly not is not taking a cautious stance and saying one cannot predict the future, it is ignoring the facts on the ground as they are.

Baltic dry index, Deutsche Bank CDS spread on 60 trillion of derivative exposure, Sovereign Debt CDS', the leverage of gold on the primary exchange in the world for paper vs physical gold, the buckling price of oil, the desperate moves of the central banks in the previous 8 years coupled with begging from the too big to fail banks that even more reckless and wild moves need to be undertaken (Let the banks charge negative interest on deposits, ban cash so the consumers can't avoid it, allow the banks to make the spread, give us more quantitative easing, keep manipulating the roulette wheel so we remain on top despite our utter incompetence, pay no attention to the market moves that say we're about to be destroyed, except of course to the extent you need to understand that if we are it's the end of the world as we know it because we're too big to fail, etc).

The systemic cancer needs to be destroyed for the actual effective allocation of scarce resources to be performed, the existing central banking system, its oversight, and basically everything about it, needs to undergo creative destruction.

Nice selective quoting there. You have no intellectual honesty at all. Just for the record, I was very specific about the magnitude and nature of the coming crisis in the post I linked (and that you apparently read, but omitted parts that didn't fit your little narrative). This is my comment from 160 days ago:

"Mark my words: the economic depression that will occur in the next 5 years will be started by bubbles popping in residential property markets (China's first, most likely). Consequently, we'll be looking at financial system collapse when this is transmitted to banks via insolvent residential property speculators (to whom they've loaned significant amounts of money). This ain't going to be pretty...

On the hopeful side, countries like the US, Ireland and Iceland who 'took their medicine' during the GFC (sustained heavy property price declines or significant bank collapses), will be closer to fundamental values already. So they may have less distance to fall, even though there will probably be some overshoot. Also, OPEC flooding the world market with oil (to try and kill the US shale oil industry in the crib) and the likelihood that China will run down its foreign currency reserves to pay for stimulus (depreciating the US dollar) will mean US export industries (excluding oil and natural gas) become very competitive indeed.

Countries like China, Australia, Canada and the UK on the other hand, who staved off significant property market corrections during the GFC (especially Australia), are in for a very bad time (http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-hou...). Like worse than 1920s depression bad time (closer to 1890s depression)."

So: enormous crisis, china run down fx reserves, crisis will originate from distorted chinese property market driven by speculative bubble popping.

Here are a few news articles, some from just today:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kyle-bass-warns-chinas-fore...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/08/latest-chinas-fx-reserves-dro...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/this-chinese-citys-property-mark...

And this is where I bow out. I'm done trying to reason with the unreasonable.

EDIT: I lied. Christ, you even misquoted me from a few posts up: "If you want to see some decent economic commentary, look here: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/ . These guys have been screaming bloody murder for at least the past year."

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