Comment by ilamont | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ilamont | Hacker News Reader

"If I read the signs correctly, America has finally reached the point where its economy is so deep into overshoot that catabolic collapse is beginning in earnest."

The problem is the author did not read the signs correctly. There are definite problems to be sure, but the catastrophe he is predicting ("stock their pantries ... learn a practical skill or two") is paranoid, head-for-the-hills nonsense that seems to crop up a lot these days, not only because of the political and economic changes that have occured over the last decade, but also thanks to the Internet, which lets such views gain a much wider audience and amplification than they would have in the 20th century.

One comment about local tax revenue: There will be a correction in some states, starting with California and many municipalities. The end of state funding and a sharp reduction in property tax revenue will force layoffs, bureaucratic restructurings, and an end to the generous pension and benefit plans that many public servants now enjoy. It just can't be sustained. But he is going too far in his suggestion that it's part of some "end of days" scenario.

paranoid, head-for-the-hills nonsense that seems to crop up a lot these days

It is worth noting that this blogger, while a major commentator in the 'collapse scene', has always been on the other end of the spectrum, arguing for calm and reason against the paranoid, head-for-the-hills types.

Not that he is telling people to head for the hills in this post - rather he seems to be arguing that we should pay attention to some what is really going on, and prepare ourselves for possible repercussions accordingly.

Doesn't the mere existence of a 'collapse scene' suggest such commentators still enjoy enough idle time (aka sufficient employment, food supply, shelter, leisure time) to make the commentary in the first place, and thus that the prognosticated magnitude of the economic collapse is exaggerated?

People are not dying of exposure or starvation in refugee caravans across the plains, as they did in the 30s. Urban families are not sending their pre-teen daughters to work 14hour factory shifts 6 days a week just to be able to afford semi-rotten food from the nearby grocer, as they did at the turn of the last century.

It seems we would have much further to fall before genuine survival is imperiled.

It seems we would have much further to fall before genuine survival is imperiled.

I quite agree, things have to get a lot worse before most of us here are seriously affected. But I think it is worth being aware of the trends.

To quote Gibson: "The future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed"

Sadly, advice like "learn a practical skill" is either overshoot or undershoot. If there is no collapse, it's undershoot. If there is a collapse, victory goes to organized groups with guns and tanks.

There is a lot of middle ground.

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