Endgame: collapse is beginning in earnest | Hacker News Reader

Endgame: collapse is beginning in earnest

thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com

21 pointsdood17 comments

I remember coming across an innumerate post on this blog once before, bringing in some reality, and being told to leave. I note that there's no quantitative analysis in this post. His message seems to be that the sky is about to fall because some state governments aren't paying for food stamps, etc, which is reading a bit much into it.

Here was that post: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2008/07/trailing-edge...

He thinks that going back to the 50s and getting rid of microcontrollers in sewing machines would save substantial amounts of energy, and he didn't let the fact that those microcontrollers draw minuscule amounts of energy compared to the sewing machines and could result in a net savings if they allowed it run for a second less change his mind. So I would take anything he says with a grain of salt.

I confess (as the poster) that I'm not a huge fan or even a regular reader of this blog.

But his writing is often stimulating, provocative and insightful; and moreover provides a useful counterpoint to the startup and technology blogs I spend most of my procrastination time reading.

Edit: note that he is not saying "the sky is about to fall", on the contrary he specifically says "the changes involved won't be sudden". Whatever flaws he has, he is not the alarmist, paranoid type. He is urging awareness and preparedness in the face of some worrying trends.

> half the American workforce has no steady work, decaying suburbs have mutated into squalid shantytowns, and domestic insurgencies flare across the south and the mountain West,

Lucky for me I'd been off-planet on vacation at the time of the war. There wasn't much to do. All the bowling alleys had been wrecked, so I spent most of my time looking for beer. One day I was out looking for a nice place to build a city for my children when I spotted a mutant in the forbidden zone. I landed my vehicle to pursue and destroy this genetic freak before he could warn other mutants in the underground caves.

Thank you, you have made my day.

Quote care of "Strange Brew" right?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086373/

"If I read the signs correctly, America has finally reached the point where its economy is so deep into overshoot that catabolic collapse is beginning in earnest."

The problem is the author did not read the signs correctly. There are definite problems to be sure, but the catastrophe he is predicting ("stock their pantries ... learn a practical skill or two") is paranoid, head-for-the-hills nonsense that seems to crop up a lot these days, not only because of the political and economic changes that have occured over the last decade, but also thanks to the Internet, which lets such views gain a much wider audience and amplification than they would have in the 20th century.

One comment about local tax revenue: There will be a correction in some states, starting with California and many municipalities. The end of state funding and a sharp reduction in property tax revenue will force layoffs, bureaucratic restructurings, and an end to the generous pension and benefit plans that many public servants now enjoy. It just can't be sustained. But he is going too far in his suggestion that it's part of some "end of days" scenario.

paranoid, head-for-the-hills nonsense that seems to crop up a lot these days

It is worth noting that this blogger, while a major commentator in the 'collapse scene', has always been on the other end of the spectrum, arguing for calm and reason against the paranoid, head-for-the-hills types.

Not that he is telling people to head for the hills in this post - rather he seems to be arguing that we should pay attention to some what is really going on, and prepare ourselves for possible repercussions accordingly.

Doesn't the mere existence of a 'collapse scene' suggest such commentators still enjoy enough idle time (aka sufficient employment, food supply, shelter, leisure time) to make the commentary in the first place, and thus that the prognosticated magnitude of the economic collapse is exaggerated?

People are not dying of exposure or starvation in refugee caravans across the plains, as they did in the 30s. Urban families are not sending their pre-teen daughters to work 14hour factory shifts 6 days a week just to be able to afford semi-rotten food from the nearby grocer, as they did at the turn of the last century.

It seems we would have much further to fall before genuine survival is imperiled.

It seems we would have much further to fall before genuine survival is imperiled.

I quite agree, things have to get a lot worse before most of us here are seriously affected. But I think it is worth being aware of the trends.

To quote Gibson: "The future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed"

Sadly, advice like "learn a practical skill" is either overshoot or undershoot. If there is no collapse, it's undershoot. If there is a collapse, victory goes to organized groups with guns and tanks.

There is a lot of middle ground.

For the sake of all my American friends here as some sure signs of a country's imminent collapse (from direct experience). First there will be water shortages and the mains water becomes undrinkable. Second you will get electricity blackouts at irregular intervals and then the country will reach a point where the electricity is more off than on. Thirdly the pot holes in the roads will start growing. Fourthly the cops - especially the traffic cops will become very friendly in the pursuit of bribes and very zealous in enforcing all rules and regulations.

If you are experiencing any of these recently in the State you are living, I suggest you increase your debt to maximum (you can pay it down the line with hyperinflation money or just ignore it) stock up on your ipods and laptops and host your application on a .eu or .asia domain and enjoy the new exchange rates!

For more information on survival tactics you can contact the flatearthsociety.org :)

Why does he say to "clear your debts" in preparation for the collapse, I would think you should fire up more debt, its all going down anyway ... ?

Indeed,

One factor that "keeps the ball in motion" is that no one knows whether the final end will break in favor of the debtors or in favor of the creditor.

Hyper-inflation breaks in the favor of the debtors - Everyone without a variable rate loan can payoff their mortgage in no time.

Deflation breaks for creditors, if incomes and wages go down, homes go away.

Maybe some sort of "It's a Wonderful Life" scenario where everyone tries to call in their debts at once, and then (instead of what happens in the classic) gets vicious about collecting.

I think because he's predicting deflation. In deflation, the currency increases in value, so your debt effectively gets bigger. In a deflationary time, cash is king.

I don't care for the doom and gloom talk, but the story "Star's Reach" from the same author is interesting: http://starsreach.blogspot.com/

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