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Comment by pragmatic | Hacker News Reader

Hackers take note.

The dominant OS for Business (on desktops) is Windows. This can't change (soon), too many companies are locked into software that requires it (either built in house or purchased).

That's changing, more applications are going web based. But there are always those little niche apps that hang out in purchasing or accounting that require windows and aren't going away soon.

Most companies can't function without Excel. Go to the accounting department. Even if they have an "accounting system" ask the people working their what the use (or watch them). They probably have Excel open all day. Excel is hard to do in a browser.

Every company in the world would love to be MSFT. High profits and a locked in customer base.

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I'd say companies are less locked into Windows the OS and more so tied to binary compatibility with Windows products. I've been watching and using Wine since the project began, and it has made unbelievable progress in the last decade. Given a few more years, I wouldn't be surprised if it reached the stage of near perfect compatibility with Windows products. That coupled with the shift to more and more "cloud applications" spells big trouble for Microsoft.

Given the success of serious virtualization platforms like VMWare ESX I do think there is a long term danger of Windows becoming a rather thin shim between actual applications and the underlying "real" OS. Especially with the current "Best Practise" of every application running on its own dedicated server as everyone is terrified of the potential conflicts if you have more than one vendor application on the same instance of Windows.

If WINE actually does reach a point where it poses a serious competitive threat to Microsoft, I'd be very surprised if MS didn't file a massive lawsuit against WINE's developers + various distros to "protect their IP".

Microsoft is not just going to idly allow WINE to steal its userbase, even if WINE becomes 100% perfect and everything runs and works exactly as it would on Windows. MS has a lot of money and they will use all of it to keep Windows alive, whether that means pounding everyone involved in open-source with streams of litigation, buying off distributors (see EeePC), propaganda and FUD campaigns and whatever else.

MS already sees Linux as a threat, which is what the deal with Novell is about -- it was a proclamation to all Linux users that Microsoft isn't just going to let you stop giving them money. You either go through their approved vendor (through whom MS makes money) or you risk big SCO-esque (targeting users, not makers) lawsuits for patent infringement, etc.

To sum up, WINE is good and nice, but as soon as Microsoft perceives it as a real threat they are going to mobilize billions of dollars to put it down.

MS doesn't care about virtualization because you still have to buy Windows to use it.

Even complete lock-in might not work for them forever.

The entire US financial industry uses Windows desktops and will for the foreseeable future, but adoption of Vista, Windows 7, and Office 2007 has been (anecdotally) pretty negligible.

I imagine that their future profits are in trouble if they can't innovate enough for users to even upgrade their products.

> adoption of Vista, Windows 7, and Office 2007 has been (anecdotally) pretty negligible.

That's because Win XP and Office 2003 are good enough. That also spells trouble for their would-be competitors. If someone doesn't upgrade his XP box to Windows 7, do you think it's more likely he'll buy a Mac instead?

I don't think so.

And while web-apps are all the rage these days ... it sounds to me a lot like Sun's marketing campaign for Java or for the NC. I don't see a web-app replacing Office, even if it's powered by Google.

Funny thing happened yesterday ... went to my local library to get some books, and the bookkeeper couldn't give me those books to me because their Internet connection went down, and their accounting was done with a web-app ... cursing and screaming in the process.

... it's more likely he'll buy a Mac instead?

Well, it's not quite right. Think it this way: Compatibility broken from XP to 7, not enough features to change (so I agree with you here), ... But, a I've been told that Mac ...

A friend who works at a financial institution, and they switched from earlier (2003 server, XP) versions of Windows, to Mac.

Compatibility isn't broken between XP to 7 ... only certain apps that used unofficial APIs. And for those you can use its "XP mode" (built on top of Virtual PC).

Personally I've had few problems with Win 7, granted I only use it on my home computer.

Apple breaks compatibility a lot more often, like every two years.

Not so much anymore. Google Apps and/or Open Office are more than sufficient for most small businesses. 10 years ago Windows and Office didn't have any viable competition. Times have changed.