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Comment by mythz | Hacker News Reader

    iPad: 7.1B - doomed category
    Surface Pro/Books: 1.35B - super impressive, categories of the future!

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Isn't this what people said about the original iPhone?

It's a bit subjective since one company had huge market share out of the gate and invented the category, while the other keeps releasing 'new' products, years later. So yes, there's growth for now. For Wall Street, growth is pretty much key.

Why is it that when MS makes a "new" product and category, you put it in quotations, yet when Apple does it, you don't?

Your approach to these companies is hypocritical at best.

At least MS is trying to invent a new category these days.

>>> had huge market share out of the gate

That's just wrong.

>Why is it that when MS makes a "new" product and category, you put it in quotations, yet when Apple does it, you don't?

Because one dominates and defines the market, as can be seen by any before and after, and the other is just putting out some products few people care about.

So is the iPad Pro a "new" product or a new product?

iPad pro is a "new" product. The original iPad was a new product.

> the other is just putting out some products few people care about.

Exceptional job establishing your bias for the rest of us to see.

Sorry, but the market speaks for it too. Few people care about is a quantifiable statement.

If anything you uncovered a non-objective bias.

Tablet computers were available for 10 years before the iPad came out. They certainly brought the category mainstream but a long way from invented it.

Isn't it wrong to compare the Surface to the iPad? One is a full fledged pc with a complete operating system and the other is primarily a consumption device.

I think it makes more sense to compare the Surface line to the MacBook Air than it does to compare it to iPads.

They are comparable IMO, but it really only goes to show that software largely matters more than hardware.

After some early missteps it looks like MSFT has finally gotten the "tablet as productivity device" right, along with "tablet as true laptop replacement".

Much of this is because of Windows as a platform rather than necessarily the hardware itself (though the fact that the hardware doesn't suck like your typical Dell or HP shitbox definitely helps a lot).

Which is to say, the declining fortunes of iPad is IMO largely a symptom of iOS's limitations rather than any larger rejection of the tablet form factor.

Assuming an ASP of $800 for Surface, approx 1.7m units.

I think the reality is that Microsoft is essentially gaining market share as an OEM at the cost of its former Windows PC OEMs like Dell, HP etc.

I think it has to do with the trajectory.

iPad = declining sales year over year

Surface = increasing sales year over year

The iPad was hyped to kill laptops/PCs and Surface's doom was also hyped, so the new data points are interesting because they look like a reversal of trend.

Not claiming that this is actually how things have worked out or how customers think, but in terms of strategy it's still interesting. The iPad sought to target usage cases where a "full" laptop or desktop wasn't ideal. In doing so, it also left out several laptop/desktop capabilities that people might want to keep and missed.

After the mobile-grade tablet market was established by iPad and, later, other brands of devices, the Surface seems intended to offer the things people liked about tablets versus laptops or desktops (extreme portability, multitouch, etc) and has at least attempted to add back the things many people might have missed when using those mobile-class tablets such as greater flexibility in file management, the ability to install software from multiple sources, choose your own defaults, and run more capable software packages.

It's certainly had its tradeoffs and the greater power and flexibility meant it couldn't be quite as portable as a tablet or work quite as well in certain cases as a traditional laptop but it's been interesting to see how these companies seem to target audiences that aren't happy with certain aspects of dominant products.

The end result (for me at least) is that I've learned there's no "perfect" device or form factor that has all the pros and none of the cons in all situations. That said, more options certainly does make it easier to find something closer to what you're looking for. I enjoyed the portability of my iPad but chafed under restrictions that required jailbreaking to work around.

The Surface line still is not the perfect device for me but whenever my Asus laptop dies, I'll seriously be considering one as a secondary computer after using one at work (primary will probably remain a desktop for the foreseeable future).

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