I wonder if YC will see accept any companies/ideas that have a low probability of of reaching IPO / acquisition at >= $100M. Plenty of good companies aren't going to reach this scale but could certainly use their expertise and cash.
This is not something we actively try to predict, even with the Core program. Airbnb, for instance, would have been missed if we thought like this. As ever, we primarily optimize for funding great founders.
Really like this. If a great founder switches ideas while in their fellowship based on advice and market conversations, it seems like there would be no issue with doing so.
They are giving the companies 20k for 1.5% stake so they would make 1.5 mil when their investment pays off. 1.5 mill /20k = 1.3%. They only need 1.3% of the companies they invest in to pay off to make money so I think they will be fine investing in low probability companies. 1.3% is 1 out of 75.
1.3% is a HUGE percentage of companies that have to make a 100mn "exit."
I expect they're looking more for >0.013% to become $10B companies than 1.3% to become $100M companies.