This changes when most of the hash power agree. If the 74% agree then the chances are 24% ( http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=binomial+distribution+n... ). The calculation is more complicated because the intervals may overlap, but this would take less than a year.
So, when more than 70% of the hash power agree, it's time to upgrade, but 70% is a clear majority.
(Just for curiosity: With 75% hash power you get a 52% chance. With 76% hash power you get a 78% chance.)
I was astonished when I read this 'consensus' code in the Bitcoin repository. I recommend removing it or deploying an old version of the Bitcoin server. It is a reckless and deceitful (how many users actually understand the tacit consent they are granting by running this code?)
> conflicting versions of the transaction history for a substantial length of time.
Indeed if a new block size is 'forced' with a fork, it essentially creates a new currency. I doubt the new big-block Bitcoin will stand on its own.