Your statement that there's "too much value to capture" is absolutely correct. The value that is being captured is human labor.
There are entrenched political interests that will slow down adoption of this that will make climate-change deniers look like kindergarten bullies.
http://www.aarp.org/home-family/personal-technology/info-201...
National organizations have influence in local policy when it affects issues they care about. Normally, at least for very contentious issues, this doesn't happen (e.g. abortion, global warming, gay marriage) because those matters aren't handled locally.
An issue like this would absolutely be a priority for AARP and its members. Those members, as correctly noted, are likely voters.
Source: I work with local governments across the country.
I do think, though, that of the major cities, many people would agree that Chicago is among the most resistant to changes in labor due to customer preferences, due to its unique political system.
That said, though, imagine how absurd it would have been 6 years ago to imagine the market share that the Chicago yellow cab companies are losing, to newcomers that didn't even exist yet. I don't think many people, especially cab companies and Chicago legislators, could have predicted it.
The swell of opposition in legislators against cheaper technological answers to current labor solutions is heroic- the question that remains is, 'How long before consumer demand for the radically cheaper and/or more efficient option makes the opposition moot?'.
The answer usually seems to be: 'Sooner than everyone thinks.'
Uber was a matter of applying well understood techniques and waiting for a critical mass of GPS enabled mobile devices with data support. Self driving cars still need to overcome fundamental challenges. It could happen in five years, or 50 years might pass without breaking through the final hurdles. Remember, the last 10% is 90% of the work.
"In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
How do you define "cab"? How do you define "driverless"? Do you mean from arbitrary point A to arbitrary point B, or can there be only pre-defined connections between hubs? Must they travel above ground on ordinary streets, or specialized streets? How many people can they hold? And how do you define "driver"? Under certain interpretations of your bet, the MTA system already satisfies those requirements.
Don't be fatuous.
What is your point?