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Comment by Eric_WVGG | Hacker News Reader

A few problems with the predictions...

1. The first iOS "phablet" only happened in 2014, and was very late to market. This explains why phablet growth in 2014-15 is explosive, but does little to predict future growth.

2. We are now entering the second year of no significant new small phones being released for either iOS or Android. Of course small phones would fare badly when nothing good is for sale!

The best-selling iPod was the Nano, by a very large margin. The best-selling MacBooks were the 11" Air. If there is any truth to a "6C" coming out this year I expect it will do extremely well. (Unfortunately the days of the perfect 3.5" phones are likely behind us...)

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> Of course small phones would fare badly when nothing good is for sale!

It sounds like you're treating the introduction of new phone models as an exogenous event, but that's crazy. That's like saying "Of course people don't ride horse-and-buggies any more; hardly anybody make them! That doesn't mean cars are the future."

If manufacturers are introducing fewer models, it's because there is reduced demand for them.

You need some period of overlap in order to measure reduced demand. If every horse dropped dead the day cars went on sale, that says nothing about reduced demand for horses.

Thank you for introducing me to the word "exogenous"

The samsung note was released in 2011. I'm not sure what the average upgrade cycle is at the moment, but IMHO that seems like sufficient overlap that owners of the original note would have returned to smaller phones if they preferred them. They don't.

Trying to switch back to a smaller screen is tough, even if you didn't want a big phone to begin with.

Often I don't want to have a huge phone with me at all, but then I don't have a choice. The long term may be some sort of personal communicator (watch or otherwise.) Small screen, advanced input when necessary by voice. When people want to read things, write messages, watch video, play games, etc, then they can pick up their phablet -- which is effectively a phone sized tablet that fits in your pocket.

The Apple Watch probably is the step towards this direction. However, because it needs the iPhone it misses the full use case, for the moment.

Anecdotally - I would guess between 2 and 3 years based on the habits of my friends family and colleagues.

I think your argument has missed how this particular market has worked in the last nine years. People flock to the "new hotness" every year not because they demanded its features, but simply because it's the new hotness. Only afterward do they realize that this new big phone isn't what they wanted. But the companies pushing ever larger phones don't produce a new hot small model. Then they eliminate the old models slowly. It's only when the new hot phone comes in a variety of sizes that we will know what the demand truly is.

Back when cars were supplanting the horse-drawn carriage, people had choice for years. Even today, if you prefer, you can get a horse and the carriage to drive around in. But you can't find specialty shops building that small phone you want.

Also, people flock to the "new hotness" because it is what is supported. If you try to find a small Android phone today you're going to be stuck on some ancient version of the OS with no upgrade or security fix options and probably iffy support for newer technologies like LTE.

It's hard to keep a smartphone for more than a couple of years because the industry moves on and drops you like a hot potato.

>If manufacturers are introducing fewer models, it's because there is reduced demand for them.

That assumes manufacturers solely pay attention to demand before making and selling a device. Which is wrong. They pay attention to what carriers want. Which is usually what will help them sell expensive data plans. Also, companies care about what Samsung is selling. In Samsung's case they care about what components they themselves supply to other companies (SoC's, OLED's etc.). So it's in their best interest to keep them in demand.

That's good justification for there being few such models, but I see no decent small phones.

http://www.heise.de/preisvergleich/?cat=umtsover&asd=on&asuc... says that right now, android phones up to 55m width have at most 512MB RAM, so they'll be sluggish or worse.

Are the "mini" versions of the flagships (64mm) too big? http://www.gsmarena.com/samsung_galaxy_s5_mini-6252.php http://www.gsmarena.com/htc_one_mini_2-6345.php

The iphone was 58mm, right? Those are about 10% bigger than that, so IMO they are too big to be used in an argument about small phones.

Of course small phones would fare badly when nothing good is for sale!

There's also the fact that what people use their phone for has radically changed in the past few years. Small phones are great for talking because they're light and easy to hold, and they're great for portability when they're not being used, but the number of minutes spent talking to people is continuing to fall, while the popularity of messaging and pictures is still growing - people want a device that's good for entering text and looking at images, and that necessitates a larger screen and keyboard.

A brilliant small phone would still do badly simply because the market for them is shrinking.

Yes to #2. I desperately need a new Android and want a close-to-stock experience.

My choices are the 5.2" Nexus 5X or the 5.7" Moto X Pure. Both of which are WAYYY too big.

So yes this will skew stats towards larger screens, but it should not be construed as the will of the consumer. Just idiots in marketing trying to out stat each other.

Me as well, I bought a used 2014 Moto X because it was the nicest phone available under 5 inches.

#2 is correct (at least for me). I want to replace my iPhone 5 with something newer from Apple but can't. So I'm not adding to the phablet bar but I'm also not adding to the 4" bar. Of course, as soon as there is a "6C" I'm likely to buy it.

If Apple isn't making the product you want, why not buy a big ass Android or Windows phone and use until Apple does? Waiting on Apple's product-feature matrix roadmap is a tradeoff too. It just happens to involve certain current "unhappiness" for possible future "unhappiness", that is the pain/pleasure ratio of Android or Windows may be less than that of the unfilled want. Perhaps reducing the dependency chain is worth trying here to?

> The best-selling MacBooks were the 11" Air.

I doubt this.

Apple never broke down their numbers to specific models (to my knowledge, link if you have a source).

The 13" models were much more popular in nearly all hardware surveys I'm aware of.

Purely anecdotal. I've seen so many more 11" models over the years that I didn't even think that was a question. Link me any surveys you have.

My entire office of 100 people has 90% 15" MBP, and 10% 13" MBP. There might be one or two managers with Air's or the new Macbook.

Which still doesn't prove anything, of course. Just saying my experience doesn't align with yours. A survey would be interesting.

ad 2 - Sony's Compacts are pretty good. tho, no Gorilla glass (Sony has it's own, scratch-friendly thing), and they issue new models at such a stupidly quick pace, that the Z1 Compact which i have is already not getting updates any more (no Marshmallow) even though it's less than 2 years old, and almost identical to the Z3 which is getting the update. but i guess that happens with all producers...

I'll have to check those out; I'm thinking of switching carriers soon and Sony phones don't seem to be available for Sprint (my current carrier) [edit] though at 5.2" it's still a bit on the large size.

i don't think we're talking about the same phone. -> http://www.gsmarena.com/sony_xperia_z5_compact-7535.php

huh, I just looked here and did not see that: http://www.sonymobile.com/us/products/phones/

#2- you left out the Galaxy S6 Edge

well until you wear your phone on your wrist why would we want to go back to small phones and end up with a two or worse three device world?

we won't know till midway through the year if this new phablet size is the one to rule them all but it does solve the problem many have which is, why do we need so many devices that nearly duplicate each other, here is the common ground.

and please don't anyone point to watches like Apples which is a useless device if you don't have the phone to do the work. I don't pay four hundred plus bucks to have a device that needs another device to work

> well until you wear your phone on your wrist why would we want to go back to small phones and end up with a two or worse three device world?

Because I can't fit a phablet in my trousers.

Or is this the trouser manufacturers fault?

Because I can't fit a phablet in my trousers.

Or in any of the pockets of my hydration pack when I'm running in the mountains. Or, as you say, in my pockets when I'm walking the dogs. I'd go on, but the point is I don't want a do-it-all device. I'm content with a small, iPhone 5-ish phone and a tablet or laptop when I'm home or otherwise sitting down for a bit. "Until <I> wear my phone on <my> wrist", I want a 4" phone, not the monstrosities (I include my iPhone 6s in that category) available today.

Remember when we used to gawk at how small that new Razor-whatever was? "Wow, we'll have those ST:NG comm badges someday soon!" Instead we got Samsung Notes.

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