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Comment by mbesto | Hacker News Reader

And what about trucking? According to this[0] there are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States. I hate to go down the route of "machines are going to replace everything", but doesn't autonomous automobiles and AI based routing mean these people effectively get eliminated?

http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/

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Given that trains require far less cognitive load to operate than a tractor trailer (sorry engineers!), and yet still require humans to operate.. I wonder if ever? I'm actually curious why trains haven't been automated at this point (in the US at least). It seems like an ideal first step (no navigational issues, retrofit some collision avoidance mechanisms, remote control, etc, and you are up and running).

My guess: train operators are probably a much lower percentage of the total cost of running a train than drivers are for trucks or cabs, removing the incentive for automation.

They are. It simply doesn't make sense to automate them away considering the amount of liability contained within a freight train traveling at high speeds down a rail corridor.

I guess the train driver is an small percentage oft the cost of running a train compared to the cost of a truck driver.

Automated trains have existed for many years, outside the US. They are still not common though, other than in airports.

I think this disaster has something to do with the hold-up on train regulations: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C3%A9gantic_rail_disas...

>doesn't autonomous automobiles and AI based routing mean these people effectively get eliminated?

Most assuredly and it can't happen soon enough. We need to run headlong into automation, eliminating as many jobs as we can. The sooner we eliminate industries, the sooner we enter the post-labor era.

I feel that's pretty dangerous without adequate adjustments in redistribution of wealth and other sociopolitical realities. The tradition from agrarian to industrial significantly depressed labor for quite some time, so I can't imagine what a transition from labor to non-labor would do for current civilization.

Those sociopolitical realities are only conjecture to the policy makers. They are never pro-active on these issues. The only way to get there is to force their hand.

Although I agree with you, we really need to put the economic frameworks in place as well. We'll eventually get to a fully-automated society, but our current model is already under stress from our current position. Getting there is going to take some serious change.

Yup, get ready for some major changes. The people who see this coming will be well ahead of the curve.

How? I also see this change coming - but I don't feel well ahead of the curve.

Do you drive a truck for a living?

Nope.

That's a start!

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