Porn industry adoption is likely closest thing to a sure thing the tech industry has in terms of a oracle. Its been the tipping point in:
VHS
Dvd
Bluray
Web
VHS
Dvd
Bluray
Web
DVD/BluRay were all successful purely because the largest CE companies put their might behind it and pushed it forward. Arguably the Playstation was a far bigger influence.
The Web never had Porn for quite a while (I had a 1200bps modem and remember the early days pretty well). Sites like Yahoo, Netscape etc were the reason the Web was successful. Porn was mostly Hotline Client, Usenet, Private FTP and BBS accounts. Even then Porn was never popular until Quicktime came about.