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I never said am certain, I'd assign both cases about the same probability. Since I've already stated why I think the malevolent simple AI scenario such as a paperclip maximizer is plausible, you haven't stated why you find it implausible. That is why I asked.

Also, what does the Intermediate value theorem have to do with it?

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You asked why I was certain. So I asked why you were certain. The onus is on the people putting out apocalyptic theories to justify the apocalyptic scenario (extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence - a central tenet of the scientific method).

We are going to have a normal-intelligent AI before a superintelligent AI.

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