That said, I also think it's really important to ensure that the title you submit is properly phrased. The articles that have received the most votes have inevitably been the ones I put some time into rewording to appeal to HN users.
That said, I also think it's really important to ensure that the title you submit is properly phrased. The articles that have received the most votes have inevitably been the ones I put some time into rewording to appeal to HN users.
I'm more speaking for the people who write their own stuff(sivers, asmartbear etc). Who spend 2-3 hours putting an interesting article together, only to have it die in the new bin.
For example, I get asked all the time how I got my site to 35K visits in 2 months. And I'd love to share. But I always put it off because I know there is a 90% chance it'll never get off the new page.
Why should I spend 3-5 hours putting that article together with graphs and data, if I know for a fact that there is 99% chance that it'll die. I got a site to run, I can't throw away my time like that.
In fact the only articles of mine that actually made it to the front page, were those which I linked to from another relevant discussion. Those got 40-60 upvotes. But if I didn't link them from a relevant thread, they'd be stuck in the new page like all the other submissions.
But just like making music, I write what I write because it helps me to put down my thoughts, how many others read it, find it useful and/or comment on it is really not that big a deal to me, though I'm always very happy when there is some kind of interaction around something I write. Usually I learn as much from the feedback and the comments as I did from doing whatever it was that I wrote about in the first place.
If I knew the article would have a chance on HN, I'd probably put a little bit more priority on it.
So far as the value of 'x%' goes, there are certainly ways you could game the current system in your favor: linkbait the title to appeal to a very specific demo, get a few friends lined up for a quick upvote... it doesn't seem like it would be too much trouble. I often see very recently submitted articles with 3-4 upvotes at or near the top of the homepage. If the only reason you're writing is for traffic, there certainly appears to be a lot of opportunity. Am I wrong?
If it never makes it to the front page, where 99% of the people view the stories, then all that effort was for naught. And I might as well save my time.