They're in a bubble right now, and there is commentary in the sportsball press about what, for example, the NBA as a corporation will do when the bubble pops. Other than go bankrupt and emerge on the other side with the same people doing the same thing. Its a pretty serious concern for them.
And then you get into the question of the quality of pro sports. Lots of people are unhappy with the NBA and their heavy focus on superstars. Ticket sales are down, and fewer people are watching it on TV as well. The NFL seems to be getting into controversy after controversy that's turning people off. If the players aren't behaving distastefully and if the teams aren't cheating, then there's the whole concussion fiasco playing out right now.
Not to mention a lot of these sports teams lean on non-profit status and taxpayer-funded stadiums. What would have happened if Detroit hadn't funded a replacement for the Silverdome? Taxpayers are getting a bit more wary of where their public funds are going.
None of these things will kill pro sports, but they do lower the value. And it's possible someday a cable company will drop high-priced sports and not suffer any consequences. When that day comes... well the bottom will drop right out of that market.
As the other commenter said, this is completely false. The NBA has been doing everything right by focusing on stars and personalities. People are much more likely to like/hate a player in the NBA than they are the NFL. The NFL is trying to replicate the star thing that the NBA does, but no players are on the field all the time and helmets make players hard to recognize.
Having been to both NBA and NFL games, I always feel more in the game when at the NBA game. IMHO, NFL games are best watched on TV, while the NBA is great in person particularly in the first 10 rows.
The biggest issue for the NFL cash cow are concussions and parents not letting their kids play football. It will take time, but eventually the skill level will drop.
That's completely false on both counts. Ticket sales are at record levels [1] and last years NBA finals broadcast had the highest ratings since 1998 [2].
[1] http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2015/10/26... [2] http://www.sbnation.com/2015/6/17/8795971/2015-nba-finals-tv...
ESPN costs cable subscribers about $40/month whether they watch sports or not. That's the real bubble; when those viewers cut the cable, that income will never come back.
NBC is not bidding $1 billion because there are people who are forced to subscribe to ESPN that don't want to. They are bidding $1 billion because there is a high demand for sports programming.
I'm arguing against the guy who said that sports leagues are going to go under because people are no longer forced to subscribe to programming they don't want.
If XYZ network could win at a bid of $750M I don't think they'll toss away $250M out of the goodness of their heart by bidding $1B. That's $250M that isn't going toward player salaries, overhead, stadiums, owner profit both immediate and via the estimated value of the team increasing for some future sale, etc. That, is a "sports" problem.
If TV revenue were a rounding error on the budget, variation could be ignored, but its not. It varies from sport to sport but very roughly about half the total revenue comes from TV for most popular pro sports.
On a technicality, there isn't a $1B bid because of high demand for sports. There's all kinds of things in high demand with no functioning market at all. Think of weed, for example. Anyway the football bid is $1B because they reckon they can sell more than $1B in advertising to baby boomer aged fans or other viewers who still have money to be influenced. Betting on TV commercial revenue increasing in perpetuity for all time is not a good bet to make.