https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Definition
"Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars."
It has to be nation wide in at least 45 states, it also needs to be a comparable price to what Uber is now ( so like 30$ or less for a 10 mile trip)
Your comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10673357
Wha?
You are lucky to be able to consider such a thing seriously!
Why don't you bet something more reasonable, like $10?
The second part of that isn't really something you add to casual repartee.
I don't even believe laser scanners Google is using are required anymore:
http://gizmodo.com/mit-figured-out-how-to-make-cheap-3d-scan...
1) When you scale from individual autonomous devices to vast networks of them you run into emergent phenomena that you simply could not predict ahead of time.
2) You have to spend enormous engineering effort protecting incumbents. E.g. there has been a ton of work on figuring out how to protect wireless microphones used by churches and stadiums. They are intermittent and have a "dumb receiver" (that never transmits), making them very difficult to handle using a "listen before talk" approach. And that's for fricking church PAs. Imagine the push-back when your technological edge case runs over a kid.
3) You can't deploy commercially until you change the regulatory regime. That can take years to decades if you're asking for seismic shifts in policy.
I would predict another 5-10 years before the technology works correctly at scale, rather than under controlled conditions. Then maybe another 5-10 years after that for limited regulatory approval, and maybe 10-25 years for widespread regulatory approval. I don't expect to be able to catch a self-driving cab in New York or Chicago before 2040.
[1] The end goal was technologies that could obsolete fixed spectrum allocation by letting networks of cognitive radios sort out for themselves what frequencies to use. There are various narrower applications, such as technologies that can take advantage of TV "whitespaces."
Not yet.
Based on what I know of Google's efforts, I think your three-year horizon for Tesla is, well, optimistic. As many miles as Google has logged, they're not testing at highway speeds yet -- I don't think their driverless prototypes (as opposed to the modified Lexus SUVs) are even capable of highway speeds. Also, AFAIK, they're only testing cars in Mountain View and Austin, which means there's a lot of weather conditions -- and to some degree terrain -- that they haven't had to accommodate. The most recently-given figures they've supplied that I can find is that they expect to be able to commercialize their technology between 2017 and 2020 -- and they've been working on this project since 2009. Tesla'a engineering is good, to be sure, but I would be really surprised if they beat Google to market in this area.
Now, once somebody really does start offering these for sale to the general public (or just to taxi/rideshare companies or etc.), the answer to your question shifts from "not yet" to "yep."
Tesla's autopilot functions at up to 90mph.
> I think your three-year horizon for Tesla is, well, optimistic.
http://www.wired.com/2015/10/obviously-drivers-are-already-a...
"Four days later, Reese, Mastracci, and Roy piled into a Model S and took off. They covered 2,994 miles at an average speed of 51.8 mph, a figure that includes the time spent plugged into Supercharger stations along the way. They had autopilot mode engaged 96 percent of the time, Reese says, using it at speeds around 90 mph. It eased the burden on the team, a big deal when you’re in a car for 57 hours straight."
96 percent of the time, at speeds up to 90mph, across 2,994 miles
To tackle all the other problems to truly have a self-driving cars is going to take much longer. Not at least since there will be decreasing incentive to solve these much harder problems in a cost effective way.
4% of the time there's inclement weather, ambiguously signed construction, heavy traffic in snow that occludes the entirety of the road, cars stopped in their lane, detours into the lane normally dedicated to oncoming traffic, and all sorts of other low-frequency events that are much harder to solve than keeping a car moving forward on an interstate.
I'd argue that 96% autonomous driving time isn't even enough to say we're 50% of the way through the challenges of creating an autonomous vehicle. Think twice before accusing me of not understanding percentages.
https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en...
(I clearly remember a video demonstrating one of the employees pulling on to the freeway and then giving the car control, I found the above while doing a quick search for that)
The second slide here says 300,000 freeway miles circa 2012:
https://www.google.com/selfdrivingcar/where/
and the next couple imply that they then moved on to the harder problem of streets.