"there's no bounds on the exponent for the runtime of an algorithm (O(n^100) is still in P), but this doesn't and hasn't happened in practice."That n^100 doesn't happen in practice might very well be selection bias. Perhaps humans are really bad at finding solutions that genuinely require polynomial work greater than O(n^4) [see note 1]. In fact, if P=NP, that would explain why we haven't thus-far found the polynomial time algorithms for any NP-complete problems.
"we would have to redefine what we mean by provable security, and then have to make some other arbitrary distinction. Is n^100 secure, but n^99 not?"
That doesn't seem materially different than having to pick key lengths. There is some amount of work you expect to be beyond what your opponents could theoretically muster. Pad a bit for safety.
"So for now P vs NP is an extremely useful distinction and I have yet to see a convincing argument that it's not."
We're using NP as a proxy for "provably different lower bound on checking versus finding". It's not a bad proxy, but having an actual proof of lower bound should be even better whether or not it is exponential, provided there's a sufficient gap to make realistic key sizes useful.
[1] Edited to add: As pointed out to me below, there are plenty of examples of O(n^k) with arbitrarily high k. This certainly undermines my speculation about human capabilities. At the same time, it means it does happen in practice.