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Comment by Rmilb | Hacker News Reader

The CIA(1), and other Fortune 500 Companies have internal prediction markets that work quite well. However, internal politics inside of the organization sometimes spell the death of those markets.

This is more good data that gives me more faith in the www.Augur.net decentralized prediction market premise.

[1] https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intellig...

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Is there any software to create a simple intranet prediction market?

We make prediction market software for companies to use internally: https://cultivatelabs.com/forecasts if you want to chat sometime.

Very interesting....since you're in the business, I wonder if you could share any observations on any difficulty selling into organizations where politically competent people are very much not interested in discovering and publicizing the ability of others in the organization to make correct predictions?

We often have people participate anonymously - either anonymously among their peers, or in certain instances, anonymous from anyone in the company and we serve as the 3rd party arbiter of all the data. It really just depends on the organization's culture and how transparent they are ready to be.

Minimally though we're looking to establish an ongoing dialogue between the different levels of an organization. Our belief is that people on the ground building product, interfacing with clients, etc. aren't consulted nearly enough about predictions that inform big strategic decisions. Instead, leaders are making decisions based on input from a limited number of SME's, data analytics, and their own beliefs. None of these are bad per se, but not leveraging your own people we believe is a huge opportunity lost.

Happy to follow up live/over email if you'd like. adam at cultivatelabs

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