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It's accurate depending on what you're looking for. Saying you didn't visit a site means you either did, or did not, but saying you did visit a site means you 100% did for sure. In the case of a negative the results are meaningless, but in the case of a positive they are accurate. Similar to a bloom filter

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I saw several sites pop up on the list of sites I visited that I'm quite sure I've never explicitly been to. It's possible these were all loaded via ads or some such thing, but it seems unlikely.

I've just checked my history and the sites I thought I have not visited do not show (2/14). Maybe 85%?

Yeah, I think the accuracy so far has been like 75-80% among my friends (once httpseverywhere is disabled). PS: you can check whether sites are in your HSTS cache in chrome at chrome://net-internals#hsts

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