Number 1 is the Dunning Kruger effect
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
(A favourite of mine and a regular on HN I bet)
(A favourite of mine and a regular on HN I bet)
"Overconfidence
People tend to overestimate their own abilities, knowledge and skills. For example, if you ask 100 people if they are better than average drivers, then you might not be surprised if more than 50% of them reply “yes”!
Moreover, studies show that the discrepancy between accuracy and overconfidence increases (in all but the simplest tasks) as the respondent is more knowledgeable! (Accuracy increases to a modest degree but confidence increases to a much larger degree. ) If this is true then it may not be wise to pass the Subject ST5 exam!
Overconfidence could therefore be a potentially serious problem in fields such as investment where most of the participants are likely to be highly knowledgeable.
Moreover, the available evidence suggests that even when people are aware that they are overconfident they remain so."
Also people don't actually need to think they're great drivers to think this– there's a selection bias at play. We remember every single time some other driver almost killed us, far more than we notice when people are driving nice and smooth.
Isn't it fully possible that most people are better than the average? Most people e.g. have more arms than average.
Is the D-K "wisdom" useful?
I say stupid stuff all the time.
Also - I tend toward the more negative end of the spectrum, i.e. I don't have the confidence, but I'm probably smarter than 90% of the population. Aaaand - as a Brit - Just saying that is making me cringe with embarrassment.
A different way to phrase the wisdom is that accurate self assessment is a valuable learning aid.