> In this case, the GP probably believes, albeit incorrectly, that the media reports about the sentence Swartz was likely to recieve were correct.
I don't think there were any media reports claiming that Swartz was likely to receive anything like the max sentence, only that it was the maximum allowed in the law.
Unsophisticated readers may have falsely concluded that Swartz was likely to receive that sentence, but that's not what any of the media reports I saw said.
> Remember that the 50 year figure was widely reported at the time, often by sources that seemed reliable.
None of the media reports I saw that presented the figure -- as an "up to" figure, invariably -- did so inaccurately, or claimed it was a likely sentence rather than the most extreme theoretically available for the offenses for which he was charged.