Now consider where the tyical HN reader comes down on these issues. So yeah. Not a lot of love for banks.
Now consider where the tyical HN reader comes down on these issues. So yeah. Not a lot of love for banks.
I'll just guess you're American.
America's obsession with "free market" is why you have terrible banks, terrible health care, terrible conditions for low income workers.
Governments are intended to serve the whole of society. If you elect a government that decides society is best served by private enterprises which are solely interested in making a profit and aren't bound by laws saying they have to serve the entire community responsibly, what do you expect?
And here's a tip for you: "disrupting" banks isn't going to work out well either. If banks are taxi's, what will the bank equivalent of Uber look like?
A company that hires thieves to run it's operations, and every 100th customer has their funds stolen by a member of staff.
Banks don't need more competition to be better. They need to be legally required to operate in a way that is financially reliable, and held accountable when they don't.
America's lack of free markets more like. Between the bailouts and increased regulations, bad behavior has been rewarded and good actors (including small community banks) have been hit pretty hard.
> If you elect a government that decides...
The problem with thinking government is the solution is that popular opinion is cyclical:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_Unit...
So whatever power you give to government to "set things right" and "ensure fairness" will be used (in probably less than 10 years) by someone else do do something "unfair" and "corrupt".
> They need to be legally required to operate in a way that is financially reliable, and held accountable when they don't.
I reject that the dichotomy is government on one side and corporations on the other. Most of the time, they are on the same side. Corporations campaign and get regulations and handouts friendly to their business models and push out competition. On a local level, sure, you have taxi lobbies getting strict rules that eliminate competition. On the federal level, we have laws on the books that allow jail time for violating copyright, which is basically violating a business model. I could see civil penalties, but jail time?
The good bits of US healthcare are the bits provided and paid for by the government. It's a weird combination of expensive (the US government pays more per capita than any other healthcare system; and insurance is expensive) and hard to access.
> On the federal level, we have laws on the books that allow jail time for violating copyright, which is basically violating a business model. I could see civil penalties, but jail time?
I agree that jail should be avoided for non-violent criminals. Isn't copyright law a combination of civil penalties (for people who just download stuff) and criminal penalties (for people who operate a business based on downloading stuff)? So if I download a bunch of movies they can sue me for loss of earnings of those DVDs, but if I burn those movies to DVDs and sell them it becomes criminal?
Like the part where I have to spend hundreds of dollars to see a doctor for something silly? Most of the time I go to the doctor, he doesn't tell me anything any nurse couldn't (and it's probably something I knew myself, walking in). So costs go up. That's all government.
See also the basically unchanging pay-for-treatment model with is more-or-less mandated by acts of Congress. Want to create a medical retail startup that charges flat rates based on outcomes somehow? List all of the risks in that plan. How many of them are due to government regulations?
To be fair, maybe medical regulations are fair, but acting like the private sector ruined healthcare is ignoring the tradeoffs of those kinds of regulations.
> loss of earnings of those DVDs
Exactly. Violating a business model. So the company should be able to recoup their losses in civil courts if it's unfair competition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_Copyright_Law_in_the_...
> Like the part where I have to spend hundreds of dollars to see a doctor for something silly? Most of the time I go to the doctor, he doesn't tell me anything any nurse couldn't (and it's probably something I knew myself, walking in). So costs go up. That's all government.
a) if it's something 'you already know yourself', why are you going to see a doctor?
I've been to see a doctor (apart from return visits for a followup, or health certificates for my visa/work permit) a total of twice, in the last 10 years I'd say. Once I sliced my finger open (and it had to be cauterised) the other I had a weird allergic reaction to something and developed a rash. In that time I've had literally hundreds of cold's, the flu 3 times (in one year!) and plenty of small cuts bruises etc.
Why didn't I go to the doctor for all of those? Because I don't need a doctor to tell me "drink fluids|take over-the-counter medicine|put a band-aid on it|keep warm" for basic health care. If you are visiting the doctor every time you have a cold or flu, maybe you need to stop complaining about your government being inefficient and start taking some personal responsibility.
b) just because it costs 'hundreds of dollars' in America doesn't mean it has to. It's not a coincidence that your government is known around the world as being pretty ridiculous when it comes to getting shit done. Australia has universal health care, and there was recently a huge issue when the then-newly-elected government tried to introduce a $7 co-payment for each visit to a doctor.
> How many of them are due to government regulations?
American government regulations. Just because you have crazy laws, doesn't mean the rest of the world does.
From an outside view, American society by and large seems to embrace unregulated 'free market' concepts and/or minimising the government's ability to have any kind of impact on society.
The person I replied to claimed that Banks are the problem, and specifically mentioned the 2008 financial crisis, which was the result of banks doing things they never should have, because they are either not bound by laws about their behaviour, or they're not punished appropriately when they break said laws.
Banks do not create money out of thin air: central banks do. Through loans to charter banks and bond purchases, the Federal Reserve creates (or destroys) money whenever the internal one day inter-bank loan market interest rate is above (or below) a certain guideline (the "interest rate").
On the other hand, if I deposit $100.00, the bank is allowed to loan a certain percentage of it to someone else. That is fractional reserve banking. Let's say the bank operates with a 2% reserve. I deposit $100.00, they loan $98.00 to Johnny. A naive understanding of the system would lead you to think that the bank "created" $98.00 because the sum of the balances of yours and Johnny's bank account is $198.00; it did not. If Johnny doesn't pay his loan back, they're out $98.00. Your deposit is a liability for the bank. The loan is an asset. So in this situation, the bank has $100.00 in liabilities, $98.00 in assets and $100.00 in reserve.
When too many people don't pay their loans back, you have a bank run. Part of the reason the Federal Reserve system exists is to avoid this situation by allowing the banks to borrow from a lender of "last resort" if this were to happen.
"In the modern economy, most money takes the form of bank deposits. But how those bank deposits are created is often misunderstood: the principal way is through commercial banks making loans."
"Money creation in practice differs from some popular misconceptions — banks do not act simply as intermediaries, lending out deposits that savers place with them, and nor do they ‘multiply up’ central bank money to create new loans and deposits."
"Rather than banks receiving deposits when households save and then lending them out, bank lending creates deposits."
"The amount of money created in the economy ultimately depends on the monetary policy of the central bank. In normal times, this is carried out by setting interest rates. The central bank can also affect the amount of money directly through purchasing assets or ‘quantitative easing’."
I recommend reading the whole report. It is meant to be readable by the non-academic and is not dumbed down either. The report is part of Bank of England's Quarterly Bulletin from 2014[1], it contains other similar articles like "Money in the modern economy: an introduction."
[0](http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarte...) [1](http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/quarterlyb...)
[1]: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/27/bank-of-engl...
I think that's not exactly true. The reality is that banks make loans and then search for the reserves. So, in practice, are the credit departments in commercial bank who decide if new money is created. Central banks can influence this by making the creation of new money cheaper or expensive.
http://www.economonitor.com/lrwray/2013/08/15/banks-dont-len...
To anyone interested in these issues, I recommend Modern Money Theory ( http://neweconomicperspectives.org/modern-monetary-theory-pr... ).
> Bottomline is, the loan is an asset and the deposit is a liability.
I used to be as skeptical as you about the full-reserve crowd but that point is actually what got me thinking: banks are the only players in the economy for whom giving out loans is a balance-sheet extension (what you're describing). They're worth more, the more loans they give out.
For everybody else, giving out a loan doesn't change their net worth! They're just exchanging one asset (money) against another asset (an IOU from someone). In other words: banks are special and are not allowed to fail, because we let them create money.
Definition of M0, M1, M2, M3, M4 [1]
>Different measures of money supply. Not all of them are widely used and the exact classifications depend on the country. M0 and M1, also called narrow money, normally include coins and notes in circulation and other money equivalents that are easily convertible into cash. M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks and 24-hour money market funds. M3 includes M2 plus longer-term time deposits and money market funds with more than 24-hour maturity. The exact definitions of the three measures depend on the country. M4 includes M3 plus other deposits. The term broad money is used to describe M2, M3 or M4, depending on the local practice.
So with 2% it's much more than that.
The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, can create money from nothing and use that to buy government bonds, like they did with QE.
it affects inflation, if not as much as M0 does iirc. (its been a while since I've taken econ, so i'm a little fuzzy on that)
This all works fine assuming you don't try to withdraw all $100 since they only have $20 on hand. Nor would it be good if Erin defaults on her debt. Or the bank collapses. This is what FDIC is there to protect, where the government will create new money in case things collapse.
And what will Erin do with that money? She will give it to Tony in exchange for some service. What will Tony do? Pay that into his bank account. Which means the bank now has an extra $70 (assuming they keep a $10 reserve) that it can loan out, bringing the total amount of money in our economy to $250.
Also that $80 that Erin borrows will need to be paid back with interest. Say the interest is $20. She pays back $100. The bank now has $120. That $20 that she paid back had to come from somewhere. Say she sold a blanket she knitted to Paul to make that extra $20. Where did Paul get that money from? He had to borrow it from the bank. And the cycle continues...
Yeah but Erin had to put his house for getting his loan.
Private banks aren't creating money, the central bank is. You've confused the two.
Which brings me to your own "M2 is derived from M0". There are certainly interpretations of that statement with which I would agree, but there are also interpretations which are seriously dubious. For example, the interpretation that "there is a causal mechanism from the quantity of M0 to the quantity of M2" is highly doubtful. The economists who actually study those things seem to come down mostly on the side of endogenous money, which says that the causality is the other way around: "changes in M2 drive changes in M0" - or rather, they did before interest rates went to the zero lower bound, at which point the two quantities became decoupled.
Everyone's a bit confused. Or talking at cross purposes.
* Central banks create M0 (either paper currency, or electronic equivalents - original fiat money). (I had to say fiat, or some gold bug would complain that gold is the real money).
* Banks borrow money, lend it out again, then when the money comes back to the banks they keep recyling it in an infinite cycle, creating M0/fr amount of broad money (M2?).
* Then other infinite cycles create even broader money, but let's forget about that.
A lot of people (especially bitcoin and gold proponents) forget is that the government can still create M0 if it's not just greenbacks (by lending out "imaginary" gold or bitcoins - as long as someone will take an IOU from the government in return for a little bit of interest). Banks can create M2, as long as someone will take their IOUs (with interest). You can ban lending, but since the critics of money usually lean Libertarian, that's not an argument you often get.
What some post-keynesians and some economically literate marxists (and maybe MMTists, I don't actually know what they're on about) suggest is that the fraction can suddenly change.
Boom - lowering fractional reserves, which means the total amount of broad money keeps increasing.
Bust - banks try to lower fractional reserves, which makes the total amount of broad money contracts.
The fraction is often treated as a constant, but if it suddenly changes (or the desired target suddenly changes), it can have a massive impact.
Banks get very comfy lending out money with very low reserve rates (effectively the multiplier of money), because whenever there's a crisis the government will "print" M0, and hand it over. So as long as the banks don't act more irresponsibly than every other bank, they can't fail. "Macroprudential" reforms (telling banks to stop it when they lend to much, or risk fines / penalties) is becoming fashionable for this very reason, since telling banks they'll all go bankrupt is about as credible as a teacher yelling "If the class isn't quiet I'll expel the lot of you!".
I like to consider the human side - in the asset bubble that occurs when M2 is rapidly growing, everyone wants to work hard and save hard, because otherwise they'll never get on the property ladder. That creates a boom, then a bust when they realise it's a Ponzi scheme. Economists who know better talk about high investment, then a crash in investment when the money suddenly dries up.
(See analogy above, do not assume I see this as good educational practise)
The general thrust of what you're saying is correct, though: If you want to understand how money enters the circulation among the general public, you absolutely have to look at banks. The central bank and the government have almost nothing to do with it outside of their regulatory function.
Sure, in a magical world where 100% of people pay back their loans. 2008 happened for a reason
Let me give you an example. I'm worth $100. We agree I lend you $1,000,000. Sure, I don't physically have $1,000,000 but I can still make a loan to you and give you some piece of paper telling you you have $1,000,000 deposited with me. My assets have increased by $1,000,000 (loan amount) and my liabilities have increased also by $1,000,000 (what you have deposited with me). I'm still worth $100 but I created $1,000,000 of new money.
This is what commercial banks are essentially doing. It's not like they have some superpowers. Everybody can do this.
So I don't understand what's your point.
You can't create $1,000,000 in a spendable form. Banks can. What you have proposed is the creation of some sort of worthless security which, yes, anybody can do.
Anyone can lend money, as you say.
If you, private Bank Lubos, only have $100 on hand but have a customer who wants a $1,000,000 loan, you don't just write a piece of paper. You would go to the U.S. Fed Reserve (central bank) and take out a loan for $999,900 with interest..
The central bank creates the $999,000, and the private bank charges a premium on the interest rate.
Conservatively managing loans means minimising lending to people likely to default, and leveraging enough to cover those who do. You do not need 100% of people to pay back their loans to turn a profit, charging interest is what makes this manageable and guarantees a profit.
Of course, you can get pretty close to 100%, but it's a balance of risk and reward, like most things.
I'm not a fan of banks nor of the amount of money they get for their services, but there's no "guaranteed profit"
There is a reason because controls have to be in the side of the lender.
Banks, and everyone else, are always going to be greedy. The source of the problem was not greed (that is a constant) but deregulation, that have not been properly corrected.
2008 happened because some d-heads decided to throw in the same bucket loans with good ratings and loans with junk ratings. And also because borrowing money was cheap, making it easy for a lot of people to borrow money when they should not have been able to in the first place. A pretty good definition of a bubble. Oh, and thanks to the Fed.
The sustainable way to get more lower income people into home ownership is to reduce housing prices (e.g. by increasing the supply of housing). Subsidizing and encouraging mortgages does the opposite of that -- instead of making housing cheaper it makes borrowing money cheaper, which makes housing prices go up. Which means existing home owners love it and new home owners like it... until all the people who couldn't get a loan in a normal market demonstrate why they couldn't get a loan in a normal market.
Is like saying that every salesman or shop in the world "buys things for less than he sells it" — it paints a picture of "free money" while completely forgetting all the work and service to society that goes into that process. In case of salesmen and shops, it's logistics; in terms of banks, it's risk management. Modern financial system is one of the most important achievements of our society: it's overwhelmingly effective in managing risks and enabling creation of countless big and/or high-risk projects while maintaining stability. It may seem counter-intuitive when you're faced with recession, but when you look how things rolled out in countries that tried to follow planned economy, communist systems, or, on the other hand, full of corruption "capitalism" that is China, you see how good is the western, first-world capitalism is in comparison.
Competition should erode that risk free profit pretty quickly..