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I surely wouldn't be willing to take that kind of chance if it were my start-up. Moreover, Google is aware of the startup existence, and probably wouldn't hesitate to sue it would it violate the TOS. And if they did, they'd probably get away just fine.

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you don't get sued for ToS violations, you just get your service shut off.

The action that he is afraid of, is the equivalent of Google suddenly deciding that they'll no longer offer gmail for free. The odds of that happening are more or less insignificant.

Receiving a Cease and Desist letter is another likely outcome that effectively cuts off access. And while your analogy of Google deciding they won't offer free gmail is ridiculous, it's also worth pointing out that they have shutdown gmail accounts for violating the gmail TOS.

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