"In particular, there is no reversion to the mean... there are going to be literally hundreds of papers exhibiting some reversion to the mean effect."

Okay.

I also think you don't know what a martingale is. It is impossible to make any expected value betting on martingale movements, by definition. If you believe traders are purely "betting on price movements" of martingales then profit is impossible. So either prices aren't martingales or trading is not purely a process of betting on the movements of market-clearing prices. Actually, both assumptions are false.