Obviously they don't protect you from someone who simply steals your entire bag, to open it at leisure away from the airport. But something doesn't have to protect against every conceivable threat in order to be useful.
Locks on your luggage is like locks on your front door. A lock on a normal house door is easily defeated with a crow bar or a strong leg. But they're still useful to keep out people who are willing to use the door knob but not actually break down the door.
I had checks stolen from a carry-on bag at JFK, by a TSA employee, pretty much right under my nose. Some airports have had mafia-run theft rings operate for months or years before getting caught.
This requires no more effort or skill than opening an un-"locked" bag.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5mvvZl6pLI
edit: s/suitcase/zip-closed bag/
The zip tie idea is fine except that my checked bag is the only place I can put something capable of cutting one.
It seems that in either case, checked luggage is at risk of being tampered with, searched, or outright stolen and there is very little we can do about it (aside from filing a claim with the airline and hoping for the best).
>otherwise a seal provides a lot more value
Introduction to Tamper Evident Devices from datagram at defcon 19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W07ZpEv9Sog is interesting to watch
I've occasionally sent a piece of luggage through, and found it re-zip-tied with a new tie, with a TSA love note inside.
Nothing is secure, really. I'm continually amazed that people want to see security as a binary thing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpIJVWXsBBI
To counter this (and unauthorized use of a TSA key), wrap your bag in industrial cling-wrap plastic.
You should also go right to baggage claim when you land. Most airports don't have someone looking at the bag claim receipts, so thieves can walk right out with a bag.
In both cases, the problem is the same: the system makes a visible promise of security and has an easy silent failure mode. Getting rid of the TSA “safe” locks or locks at all on zippered bags would improve security by accurately communicating the level risk.
If you need to transport something valuable that you can't carry on, ship it instead, overnight if necessary. No, that may not be cheap, but if you're that concerned with security, it's probably worth it.
(Not that FedEx/UPS/etc. don't come with their own problems, but I've found them to be pretty reliable over time, and you can insure the item in question.)