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Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Frankly, the market will decide. As long as competitors include the right hardware, they can always iterate on software repeatedly.

The Nest sales numbers are terribly high compared to Honeywell, and Nest has Google behind it. I wouldn't want to be Honeywell.

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In my (recent) experience, Honeywell owns the HVAC contractor market, which is where these decisions are being made on installation, repair, and maintenance.

Limited sample size but between three furnace + air quotes proposed in August 2015, all three contractors recommended the Honeywell and all three contractors dismissed the Nest as a gimmick with lackluster functionality compared to the Honeywell.

Over a year ago, Nest was selling 100K thermostats a month:

http://www.businessinsider.com/nest-revenue-2014-1

I worked at Nest on their professional distribution channel for some time. The thermostat market is dominated by professional sales (80-90% are sold and installed by professional HVAC contractors) whereas Nest traditionally sold through to a consumer/DIY audience. Nest has a very steep uphill battle against Honeywell the way Apple has had an uphill battle against Windows in large enterprise. Nest just has more mindshare amongst the tech/early adopter community.

I don't disagree its an uphill battle. I'm arguing that Google is a cash machine, and Honeywell is not. Google could continue forever trying to push Nest if they wanted to.

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