1: it's not that big a deal if you choose the "wrong" one. Flux implementations are small and based on many similar concepts. Even if you choose one that ends up being unmaintained, your flux choice will still stay a solid choice. We are using 3 different flux implementations in our apps, and have no plans to migrate any of them.
2: It's starting to look like redux has "won". Flummox, which was previously a leading contender for the title, now recommends redux. Redux has a very simple core, is an excellent merger of the best concepts of flux, elm and others, has great documentation, and an extensive ecosystem of plugins.